1.3.2008. +6.71 units
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RYMAN PREMIER Leyton Heybridge 2 (1.73 @StanJames) 7 units Bottom of the table Leyton did manage to shock us all at the beginning of February, when they shared points at home with Staines (2:2 after Staines being 2:0 up), but after that they lost again, at home to Billericay (0:2), and their boss admitted that Leyton are simply not good enough to compete at this level of football. ''...We're looking forward to next season with these lads. With a couple of new players in the right positions, we should have a good chance of bouncing back...'', he said a couple of weeks ago. Nothing changed in the meantime, Leyton are still a very young and unexperienced squad, they lost 0:5 away at Wimbledon two weeks ago and out-of-form Hendon managed to beat them again this Tuesday (some unimportant cup match, nevermind that). Leyton's last league win happened in November and their goal-difference in the last 13 matches (12 defeats and a draw against Staines) is 8:49. What else to say? Leyton are 22nd, bottom of the table, they picked up only 16 points in 32 matches (21st East Thurrock have 33 points) and at home they have 2-3-11 (17:43), but those wins happened a long time ago, before all the best players and especially their best scorer Bricknell left the club. This time they will also be without two standard players, Thomas and Renner, who are both suspended. Heybridge are one of the worse away teams in the league (2-5-8), but that doesn't mean much when you're travelling to Leyton. In fact, Heybridge need all the points they can get they're currently 13th, but they're still not safe from relegation (they have only four points more than 19th Carshalton in the relegation zone). On the other hand, they have only 9 points less than 5th Hornchurch (who played a match more) in the play-off zone so it's really up to them. This is a very tight league this season, but Leyton don't belong there. Heybridge were great against title chasing 2nd Wimbledon last Saturday (unfortunately for us), won 2:1 and striker Savage (who was fired at Wimbledon earlier this season) who scored both goals proves out to be a great signing the fans are thrilled and I must admit I underestimated Savage. This Tuesday, Heybridge pulled another shocker they won 2:1 at 4th Horsham who are traditionally great at home. Savage scored another goal (his 4th in three matches) in fact, I just saw both Heybridge's goals and if they take this match seriously, Savage should score his first hat-trick for Heybridge, but he's not the only guy who could score Heybridge have some other good players too and they have no suspension problems this time. If Heybridge don't underestimate their poor opponents, we should a see a comfortable away win. If you ask me, odds shouldn't be bigger than 1.50 here massive value. (1.73 also at Bet365, 1.70 at Stanleybet, Sportingbet, Bet-at-home, Bwin, Tipico, Digibet...) FT 0:3 CONF SOUTH Havant & Waterloovile Eastbourne 1 (2.70 @Betway) 4 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 2 units (ad-hoc draw-no-bet) You probably know everything about FA Cup heroes from Havant & Waterloovile by now. They're currently 10th in Conference South, but they have only seven points less and they played three matches less than 5th Eastleigh (in the play-off zone). What's most important, they are traditionally great at home and they are in great overall form they have four wins in the last five matches (two wins away from home in a row isn't something Havant manage to do very often they have been one of the worse away teams up untill now, but at home they're very, very hard to beat) and they also have six home wins in a row (Fisher, Eastleigh, Bognor, St Albans, Cambridge and, finally, Dorchester). They conceded only 9 goals in 14 home matches this season (scored 24, at home they have 10-2-2) and, this is a quote from Eastbourne's fans' forum, ''from the 03/04 season onwards, Eastbourne have done nothing but lose when playing at Havant's ground''. It was 1:0 for Havant in 03/04 and 05/06 seasons and 2:1 for Havant in 04/05 and 06/07 seasons. It was 2:2 at Eastbourne earlier this season that was the 3rd draw in a row for these two outfits when playing at Eastbourne. Last Saturday, Havant lost 0:1 away at in-form Braintree, but they were absolutely dominant in the 1st half and deserved at least a point. But, this is a home match Havant are a lot better infront of their fans. Almost everybody thinks that Lewes are the best outfit this season in Conference South by far. But, Eastbourne have always been up there this season, they were even league leaders untill Sunday, but now Lewes have one point more again they won 3:1 at Newport and Eastbourne lost 0:1 at home to Cambridge last weekend. Eastbourne are the second best away team in the league (9-4-1, 30:13), but Havant are a lot better team (especially at home) than Dorchester (2-4-10 at home) and Maidenhead (1-5-10 at home), two outfits (and two terrible home teams) that Eastbourne managed to beat away from home in 2008. Eastbourne lost their first away match this season at 7th Bishop' Stortford in February. After that, they managed to beat Dorchester away and another pair of relegation candidates, Bognor and St Albans, at home. Their 3:2 home win over 5th Eastleigh sounds nice, but after being 0:3 down, Eastleigh almost snatched a point in the end Havant's defence is much better, especially at home. Last Saturday, Eastbourne lost their 2nd home match this season it was 1:0 for 15th Cambridge. I can see Eastbourne winning almost all of their remaining matches in Conf South, but I can't see them winning at Havant this Saturday. I decided to stake 4 units on a home win and 2 units on a draw that means I'll make +4.8 units profit in case of a Havant win and +1.2 unit profit in case of a draw. (Odds for a home win are 2.63 at Skybet, 2.60 at Tipico, 2.56 at 10Bet, 2.55 at Bwin and Primebet, 2.50 at Blue Square and Bet365, only 2.20 at Stanleybet... StanJames, BetDirect, Better and Stanleybet both offer 3.60 for a draw, but you can find 3.50 almost anywhere...) FT 2:1 CONF NORTH Leigh RMI Barrow 2 (2.20 @Skybet) 4 units Leigh RMI are bottom of the table in Conference North, they're 22nd, but they have as much as six points less (and they played a match more) than 20th Hinckley (still relegation zone). So yes, they seem pretty doomed. They have four defeats and a draw (away at play-off candidates Hyde who were at the bottom of the form table at the time) in their last five matches and they're the worst home team in the league too (3-3-9, 17:32). They also have four defeats and a win over 21st Vauxhall in their last five home matches and this Tuesday they lost 2:5 away at 8th Burscough. They usually lose with a handicap, but I'd be satisfied with a narrow away win. Leigh RMI will be without their standard defender Evans due to suspension, but they have some injury doubts too. This is what their fans wrote on the forum: ''...Lost 5-2... Looking at the team sheet I bet they spent half the game introducing themselves to each other... What a way to run a club... We have players nobody wants, some have not played for months, and we would struggle in Unibond 1st... The defence just does not know the first thing about defending...''. Barrow are currently 11th, but they still want a play-off spot. In fact, they would be in play-off zone now if they had played for the whole season the way they're playing in the last couple of months. Since they fired their manager earlier this season and appointed Sheridan & Bayliss, Barrow finally started playing some football. They have only two defeats (away at 8th Burscough and at home to 5th Stalybridge) in the last 16 league matches they managed to beat some very good teams, they even had a 1:0 lead against league leaders Kettering before the match was abonded in 55th minute (couple of weeks ago). They only managed to share points (1:1) with 16th Blyth last Saturday, but it was one of those days I guess (strong wind screwed up a lot of matches last Saturday - unfortunately). After all, they managed to beat the very same Blyth 3:2 away from home in January. Away from home, Barrow have 3-8-4, but that's because they had to wait for their first away win untill Boxing Day (December 26th). Late November and December were months when everything started to change (for better) at Barrow and now they have two wins (at 16th Blyth and 20th Hinckley) and two draws (at 3rd Harrogate and 14th Alfreton) in their last four away matches. They could have another new striker untill Saturday, but their team is very well put together lately. Very nice odds mine would be 1.80 max. (2.25 at Stanleybet, 2.10 at Sportingbet and Bet365, 2.05 at Betway and Tipico, 2.00 elsewhere...) FT 1:2 CONF SOUTH Fisher Dorchester OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 4 units Fisher are currently 6th, just outside the play-off zone, but 4th Bath has the same 52 points, just like Fisher, so the play-off spot is up for the taking. At home, Fisher have 7-2-7 (27 goals scored and as much as 30 goals conceded only St Albans conceded more at home), but lately they usually win (four wins in the last five home matches), score and concede a lot at home. It was 3:2 against Welling, only 2:0 against one typical UNDER team, Braintree, 4:2 against Sutton, 1:4 against Eastleigh and 4:2 against Hayes. Now, all these teams (except maybe Sutton who are also down there) are much better than Dorchester and yet managed to score a couple of goals each. I wouldn't be surprised with that Sutton's result here too 4:2. I already quoted Fisher's manager before, he's a guy who wants to see his players attacking, playing football that is nice to watch sometimes it means they won't play smart, go back and defend themselves, but they're a great team to bet on. Last Saturday, I really hoped Fisher can take their home performances on the road and score and concede a bit more. It was 'only' 2:0 for them at 3rd Hampton (not the best weather, lots of wind all over non-league fields) incredible result btw. But, at home, they score more (Batt, Goulding, Tomlin, Thomas and McCollin all scored a bunch of goals lately), they attack more, they concede more and now they're playing against another struggling team that has nothing to lose. Dorchester are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone. They have 6 defeats and 3 draws in the last 9 matches and they're the worse away team in the league (2-4-9, 17:29). But let's take a look at all the Dorchester matches in the last two months, all right? Out of 12 matches, only 3 matches didn't produce at least 4 goals. Dorchester only lost 0:1 at Bath City, but it was on a New Year's Day (January 1st) and Bath City are an extreme UNDER team most of their matches produce between none and two goals. In January, they only lost 0:3 at home to fellow strugglers St Albans and in February they've played against another strugglers Sutton who are lately going for a 0:0 draw in every match. This time, they did it and two doomed strugglers shared points in a boring 0:0 draw. But every other match, nine (9) of them, produced 4 or more goals. The 0:4 defeat at Havant on Monday (Havant had 17 shots on goal btw) was a true all time low for Dorchester not just because of the result, but also because of the fans who started to insult their chairman (singing 'they hope Mitchell dies in a car crash' Jesus...), their manager who took it out on the fans after the match (telling them to 'go and support Weymouth (because) they have a proper club there') and, of course, players who were absolutely horrible (''...they had 4 players treated for head injuries and on each occasion the injuries resulted from 2 of their players going for the same ball and they also had a player pick up his second booking for re-entering the field after an injury without the referees permission....''). In other words: Dorchester's last five away matches produced four or even five goals, but with all these unsolved issues at Dorchester (let's not forget a couple of injured or suspended players it will be tough without defender Browne and midfielder Docker), we could even see a lot more. Dorchester's players will probably just go out there and do their best if they concede, they'll try to attack a bit more and finally score. Fisher's defence really could let one or two goals in (they too will miss one suspended player, standard defender Plumain), but Dorchester's defence should concede plenty. (2.57 for OVER 3.5 at Stanleybet, 1.83 for OVER 2.75 at Pinnacle...) FT 1:1 UNIBOND PREMIER Gateshead Eastwood 1 (1.80 @Bwin) 4 units These are much too high odds and they're like that probably because of the current position on the table of these two teams. Gateshead are 3rd and Eastwood are 4th, but Gateshead and all the other teams from the play-off zone (2nd to 5th) played as much as four matches more than Eastwood. Eastwood aren't the best away team in the league (5-3-7) it was 1:0 for Matlock last Saturday and now when I look at their results, I can see that they lost away at all promotion and play-off candidates (Witton, Guiseley, Marine) except at Fleetwood that one was a 1:1 draw (and Eastwood scored a lucky goal directly from the corner). This Tuesday, Eastwood won at home, against 15th North Ferriby, but their fans are not impressed with the teams' performance and especially manager's tactics au contraire. Gateshead, on the other hand, are really flying high, they have 9 wins in the last 10 matches (in all competitions), seven home wins in a row, they brought in another couple of quality players on loan, some players returned after being out injured, and at home, they're great, 9-1-3, 27:13. Their only draw in the last 10 matches was an away draw (2:2) at league leaders Witton. In the last 30 days, they managed to beat 2nd Fleetwood twice both home and away (it was 2:0 for Gateshead at home last Saturday, a great performance apparently or 'complete domination', according to their fans), beat league leaders Witton away from home in the league cup and take a point there in the league (two weeks ago). If you ask me, I think they will probably be 2nd at the end of the season and, yes, they have a great chance for a place in the Conference North next season. It was 3:1 for Gateshead at Eastwood, back in August. (1.80 also at Bet365, 1.75 at Bet-at-home and Sportingbet, 1.73 at StanJames, Gamebookers, Skybet and Paddy Power, only 1.70 at Stanleybet...) FT 1:1 |
