19.2.2008. +6.21 units
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CONF NORTH Vauxhall Hyde 2 (2.10 @Blue Square) 3 units I considered betting on OVER 3.5 in this match, but then I found out that Vauxhall's best scorer Taylor is suspended for this match (he scored the second goal for Vauxhall this Saturday) and I also remembered that shocking Vauxhall's 1:0 win over Hyde in the FA Trophy in November. Even if Vauxhall manage to score in this match, I'm not quite sure that they can score more than one here and Hyde could also score just one or two. Of course, if Hyde manage to take an early lead we could see 4 or more goals here, but 2.50 at Blue Square is not really a value bet. Odds should be better, no doubt about it. Vauxhall are currently 21st, second to bottom, deep down in the relegation zone. They're one of the worst home teams in the league (4-4-5, 21:27) and they have only one win in the last 9 matches (in all competitions). They did manage to win away at 20th Hinckley in January and share points with 18th Solihull Moors (1:1 away) and 17th Blyth (2:2 at home this Saturday), but these are all relagation candidates they lost to 11th Barrow, 13th Redditch, Conference National outfit Burton in the FA Trophy, 12th Gainsborough, 22nd bottom of the table Leigh RMI, another Conf National outfit Altrincham in the Unibond Senior Cup and 15th Tamworth. Hyde aren't in the greatest form, but it will be Vauxhall's toughest league match in months nevertheless. Now when Taylor is out suspended, I think odds should be 1.80 max for Hyde to win. Hyde are currently 7th (three points less and one match less played than 5th Nuneaton), they were doing great for the most parts of the season, but they had some bad results lately it all started with the Boxing Day home defeat to 6th Stalybridge, followed with a home draw with 3rd Harrogate and another defeat to Stalybridge, this time away from home (on New Year's Day). Those were both tough opponents though, but after that Hyde also lost at home to 17th Blyth and 14th Alfreton and also away at 15th Tamworth and 2nd Telford. Their home draw with bottom of the table Leigh RMI was also a dissappointment and their only league win in this period was a 2:1 home win over 10th Boston. They also managed to get all the way to the Manchester Cup final (they managed to beat Ashton a week ago), but now it's time for them to focus on the league if they win, they could be in the play-off zone again and that's a good enough motivation if you ask me. Vauxhall will also be motivated, but Taylor is out for Vauxhall, Hyde weren't playing bad at title candidates Telford (lost 2:1, but were a better team in the 2nd half) and these odds, especially 2.20 at my local bookie, are looking very good. Hyde also brought in a couple of new players (defenders Killock from Huddersfield and Teague from Macclesfield both joined them on loan in the last few days) and they have a couple of very good strikers. Hyde will start winning again, that's a fact, and I hope they can start by winning at poor Vauxhall. Hyde's manager knows he's probably gone if he doesn't win this one. (2.20 at Stanleybet, 2.10 also at Coral, 2.00 at Sportingbet, Skybet, Paddy Power... A couple of asian handicaps available this time too, but (-0.5) means normal away win anyway 1.98 at Pinnacle, 1.95 at 10Bet...) FT 3:4 CONF SOUTH St Albans Bishop's Stortford 2 (1.97 @10Bet) 3 units St Albans are currently 20th, down in the relegation zone, with four points less and one match played more than 19th Welling. Looking pretty bad and bad is also how they've been playing lately. Their goal-difference in the last four matches is 0:11 (three of those were home matches results were 0:3 vs 16th Maidenhead, 0:4 vs Aldershot in the Setanta Shield, 0:0 vs 8th Newport who were without a couple of suspended and injured players, all home, and, finally, 0:4 away at 2nd Eastbourne this Saturday). Another couple of players left the club recently (Butler, Walshe, Faal-Thomas...) and their only new signings are 36 year old midfielder Hunt who joined them just before the match at Eastbourne but he won't play because he's short of match fitness, and defender Fisher who came from Northwood (two leagues below). There was a lot of comings and goings this season at St Albans only two players started both the first St Albans' league match season and the last match so far, this Saturday at Eastbourne, goalkeeper Eyre and their best striker Clarke who scored, well, only six goals this season (one goal in the last 11 league matches). St Albans are also the worse home team in Conf South (1-4-9, terrible goal-difference 8:27) and these odds are much too big. Bishop's Stortford are currently 7th, but they have only two points less and played a match less than 4th Bath City. In fact, if they win and 5th Eastleigh don't win at 2nd Eastbourne (and I don't think they can win there maybe they grind out a draw though), they'll be 5th, in the play-off zone. So it's kinda similar to that Cof North match, Vauxhall Hyde, but Bishop's Stortford are playing a lot better lately than already mentioned Conf North play-off wannabe's. Bishop's Stortford are good enough away from home (7-2-5, 22:16) their away defeats and draws happened at a lot better teams than St Albans are this season (1:1 at 2nd Eastbourne, 1:3 at 9th Bromley, 1:1 at 3rd Hampton, 0:4 at 4th Bath, 1:2 at 13th Braintree, 0:1 at in-form 14th Thurrock and, finally, 0:1 at league leaders, 1st Lewes this Saturday Bishops were unlucky not to get a point, Lewes' striker Booth, league's best scorer, managed to score a winner in the 86th minute) and they won at 18th Bognor, 15th Cambridge, 6th Fisher, 17th Weston, 10th Basingstoke, 22nd Sutton and 21st Dorchester (it was 4:0 for Bishops a week ago). Most of those away wins were comfortable handicap wins nice to know. Their best scorer Pearson scored 10 goals in the last 10 league matches and I'd be surprised if he wouldn't score at least one or two in this match. It was 4:3 for St Albans at Bishop's Stortford in September, crazy score, but Bishop's Stortford were without a couple of standard players in that match, and a lot of guys who played for St Albans left the club in the meantime. Later in September, Bishops won 2:1 away at St Albans (Pearson scored both goals then and one in the home defeat too), in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round it could've been a lot more comfortable win, but I'd be more than satisfied with the same or similar result this time. (Pinnacle offer 1.90 for a (-0.5), normal away win. 1.91 at Blue Square, Gamebookers, Paddy Power, Skybet, PartyBets, only 1.80 at Stanleybet... 1.98 at Betfair...) FT 1:2 |
