16.2.2008. -5.85 units
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CONF SOUTH Sutton Eastleigh OVER 3.5 (2.38 @Blue Square) 5 units Eastleigh are fighting for the top, Sutton are fighting to avoid the drop they really have nothing to lose at the moment, they have to go for a win just like they did against Havant (this Tuesday, lost 1:3 the result could've apparently been 4:7) when they played a lot better than against Thurrock (last Saturday, when they won 1:0 we were there to bet on them though at those lovely 3.00 odds). I really believe they will score here Eastleigh's defence rarely manage to keep a clean sheet (just once in the last 9 matches), they conceded 12 in the last 7 matches and Sutton scored a goal two times in a row it's a start! Okay, if Havant managed to score three at Sutton on Tuesday night, Eastleigh should score even more on a Saturday afternoon, but Sutton could score more than against Havant (just one) too I really think they'll start to score more goals regularly now when they brought in Ramsgate's top-scorer Ball. Their best scorer Dundas (9 goals so far) should now score more too in fact, Ball scored already in his first match against Thurrock and Dundas his 1st goal in five matches against Havant. Sutton have 2-2-10, 11:28 at home, but that doesn't mean much at the moment. They'll be up for it and who knows, maybe we even see a 2:2 or a 3:3 draw. On the other hand, Eastleigh lost their home match against Sutton at the beginning of the season and they're up for a sweet little revenge. I don't think 1:0 or 2:1 (that's what the result was in that first match for Sutton) will be enough for them never is really. We should see a lot of goals this time. Eastleigh are finally in the play-off zone (and they want to stay there), but they can't afford to relax both 5th Bishop's Stortford and 6th Newport played less matches than 4th Eastleigh and have only one (Stortford) and two points less (Newport). They score and concede a lot a lot more away than at home (8-2-4, 28:19 away). I already said that they conceded 12 in the last 7 matches, but they also scored 19 in the last 6. Sales, Forbes, Adenyi, Marshall all scored a couple of goals each lately and this time they're playing against the team that has nothing to lose. The weather should be fine and anything above 2.20 looks good to me odds from my local bookie look a lot better than Blue Square odds this time... (2.69 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, Pinnacle will probably have something like 1.93 for OVER 2.75 when they put their odds up someone's going to catch those odds...) FT 0:0 CONF SOUTH Basingstoke Havant OVER 3.5 (2.63 @Blue Square) 5 units Basingstoke are currently 9th, but you already know they aren't that dangerous lately they conceded 24 goals in the last 7 matches, they lost 0:6 at 2nd Eastbourne and 1:5 at home to 8th Fisher before sharing points at 3rd Hampton (2:2) who are also starting to make way for some other teams. They had a lot of injury and suspension problems lately a couple of players returned for the Hampton match, but as much as three standard players picked up injuries during that match (another two got sent off, but are allowed to play in this match), so now Basingstoke once again have serious problems defenders Watkins, Whisken and Hankin, midfielder Laidler and strikers Charles and Tarpey are all out injured or very doubtful. Out of last 6 Basingstoke's home matches in the league, only one didn't produce 4 goals or more a boring draw against strugglers Weston, currently 17th. Havant aren't the best away team in the league (in fact, they're almost the worst), but if they want a play-off spot (not a mission impossible, they're currently 13th but they played the least matches of all teams in Conf South because of that amazing FA Cup run that ended away at mighty Liverpool), they have to try their best in every match untill the end of the season. They won only for the second time away from home this Tuesday at Sutton (3:1) and although Sutton are bottom of the table, they're improving. Havant have three wins in the last four matches (3:1 vs St Albans at home, 2:1 vs Cambridge at home, 3:1 away at Sutton) and their two recent away defeats (both high-scoring matches, 1:4 at Bishop's Stortford and 1:3 at Hayes) must've showed them that they have to try harder away from home if they want a real chance for a play-off spot. Out of last 6 Havant's away matches in the league, only one didn't produce 4 goals or more a boring draw against strugglers Bognor, currently 18th. Maybe I should have just wrote down the results from the last seven matches, both Basingstoke's and Havant's: Basingstoke 3:4 Eastleigh (h), 0:4 Lewes (a), 3:2 Bognor (h), 2:1 Maidenhead (a), 0:6 Eastbourne (a), 1:5 Fisher (h), 2:2 Hampton (a). Havant 1:4 Bishop's Stortford (a), 3:1 St Albans (h), 4:2 Swansea (h), 2:5 Liverpool (a), 1:3 Hayes (a), 2:1 Cambridge (h), 3:1 Sutton (a). (2.89 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, Pinnacle will probably have something like 1.93 for OVER 2.75 when they put their odds up someone's going to catch those odds...) FT 2:3 RYMAN PREMIER Billericay Harrow 1 (2.20 @Skybet) 5 units Billericay are doing great lately they have 5 wins and a draw against Wimbledon (who finally look like the wealthiest club in the league) in their last 6 matches. A couple of weeks ago, they were down in the relegation zone, but their new management team did a great job and now they're finally where they belong in the play-zone, currently 5th. Burbridge, Woods-Garness and Hunter all scored a couple of goals each lately and they also have proven goalscorer Bricknell who came from Leyton lately. When Flack returns, Billericay will definately start to look as the potential Conf South team for next season. But, like I said, 16 out of 18 points in the last 6 matches says it all really. They've always been traditionally great at home this season they were in a crisis for quite some time (8-2-4, 28:18 at home), that's why they have these four defeats at home this season, but if we look at their last five home matches, we see four wins (13th Harlow, 19th Wealdstone, 18th Heybridge, but also 8th Horsham nine days ago) and that already mentioned 2:2 draw with 2nd Wimbledon. Harrow managed to beat them 3:1 at their place at the beginning of the season and this should be another sweet revenge. Harrow are currently 10th, but now when talented winger Shroot returned to Wimbledon (another winger Adomah went to Barnet in January), they're certainly weakened (and they played the most matches of all teams except for poor Leyton) and away from home, they're really nothing to be scared of (4-5-6, 19:25). They were great in January, won four matches in a row, but now they have two defeats in a row (2:3 at 11th Ashford, 0:2 at home to 2nd Wimbledon last Saturday, when they were 'weofully short of attacking options' quote from a neutral match report btw) no Shroot, no wins. They'll also miss standard midfielder Highton due to suspension here and I'd be surprised if they manage to do something here. Very nice odds. (2.00 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Bwin, Bet-at-home, PartyBets, 1.90 at Stanleybet...) FT 1:1 UNIBOND PREMIER Kendal Buxton 2 (2.00 @Bet365) 4 units Kendal are one of the worst home teams in the league (2-6-5, 15:20 at home), they've dissapointed their fans (who thought Kendal could fight for promotion this season) so much that they don't even have a website currently. They had some nice results in January, but now they have two defeats in a row (0:2 at 5th Eastwood and 0:1 to 13th North Ferriby last Saturday) again and will be without Kilford and Hobson, both due to suspension. They're currently 19th, the best team in the relegation zone (3rd from bottom) but I suppose they still have chance to pull it off and stay in the league 18th Leek and 17th Ilkeston have only a point more. But, Buxton really look too strong for them at the moment fair odds should be around 1.80. Buxton are currently 6th, but they haven't played a league match for three weeks now (all their matches lately got postponed) they played four matches less than 4th Marine and have only two points less. They're the best away team in the league (8-4-2, 18:11 away) and if we look at their last last four away matches, we see three wins (at 4th Marine, 11th Worksop and 15th Prescot) and a defeat at league leaders Witton. They have five wins in a row (four of those were handicap wins) and a couple of new players (one of four new players is striker Lugsden who came from a Conf North outfit Leigh RMI), so midfielder Ridley's absence due to suspension shouldn't be that big a deal. (2.00 also at Skybet, 1.90 at Coral and Bwin, only 1.70 at Stanleybet...) FT 1:1 |
