12.2.2008. +3.9 units
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CONF SOUTH Braintree Hampton & Richmond 2 (2.50 @Skybet) 3 units Braintree are currently 12th, but let's be honest, they're really not unbeatable at home. They have 5-3-4 (13:13) at home, but Braintree's toughest home matches are yet to come after 3rd Hampton, they still have to play home matches against 1st Lewes, 6th Bath, 5th Newport and 2nd Eastbourne. They managed to beat 10th Bromley (in August), 21st Dorchester (in October), 9th Basingstoke, 18th Bognor (both in November) and 8th Bishop's Stortford (on New Year's Day) at home this season and that's fine with me Bromley, Basingstoke and Bishop's Stortford are all very inconsistent, on/off teams this season, and Dorchester and Bognor are both fighting for survival. Every single win of those was a narrow win by one goal only. What's more interesting are the teams Braintree only managed to share points with at home and the teams they lost to at home. They drew with 20th St Albans, 16th Maidenhead and 13th Thurrock all relegation candidates really (don't let Thurrock's current position fool you) and lost to 4th Eastleigh, 7th Fisher, 11th Hayes and 15th Cambridge (in their last home match three weeks ago). It's obvious now this will be their toughest home match so far and when we know that they only managed to score one goal in the last four matches (0:2 at Fisher, 0:1 to Cambridge, 1:0 at Maidenhead, 0:0 at Bath City this Saturday when they could've lost, but Bath's penalty kick went too high), these odds look even better. They have a couple of injury doubts and they desperately need a striker their best scorer this season is Sullivan who scored only six goals, but he hasn't scored for four matches now so he's not that big of a threat. With this kind of squad (very good defence, lousy attack), they probably won't allow Hampton to go crazy and score four or five (something that Hampton do from time to time), but I think Hampton will still be better by a single goal or maybe two. A low scoring draw (something like 0:0 or 1:1) is also possible here, but I have to take this value bet because my odds on Hampton here could never be higher than 2.10. Hampton had a beautiful season so far, they already managed to collect 50 points (that and by that they meant avoiding relegation was their main goal for this season) so now they can relax and play some good, attacking football untill the end of the season. They're currently 3rd, they have a great chance for a play-off spot, they're one of the best away teams in the league (7-3-3, 24:17), they lost only two out of last 18 matches and now they welcome back a couple of important players who were injured, suspended and absent lately. Because of those injuries and suspensions (standard forwards McAuley and McIntosh were both suspended on Saturday, but now they're available) they've put out a lot less dangerous team against Basingstoke this Saturday and the match ended 2:2. Basingstoke welcomed back a couple of very important players and that match was a clear NO BET match (or a high-draw-possibility match as I don't bet on draws) for me, even after those recent terrible results for Basingstoke. Okay, like I said, standard forward McAuley and standard midfielder McIntosh are now back in the team, just like midfielder Matthews, defender Barnett and their probably the best scorer Yaku, another standard defender Paris will be 100% ready too (he played with some jet-lag after playing for Anguilla and losing 0:12... It's a long story really), some other players who were injured lately should also come back and suspended defender Ryan Lake won't be very missed (not after two red cards in two weeks one of Basingstoke's goals this Saturday was a penalty kick that he was guilty for) he sits on the bench more than he plays lately, even when he's allowed to. Three away defeats for Hampton happened at 6th Bath City (in August), 8th Bishop's Stortford (in September) and at bottom of the table (but motivated and determined to stay in the league we saw that this Saturday when we placed a winning bet on them) Sutton (again, on New Year's Day Boxing Day and New Year's Day are always full of crazy results). They shared points at 11th Hayes (in August), 2nd Eastbourne (in December) and 5th Newport (ten days ago) and won away at 18th Bognor, 13th Thurrock, 9th Basingstoke, 14th but traditionally great at home Havant, 21st Dorchester, 15th Cambridge and leaders Lewes (that was Lewes' first home defeat of this season). (2.40 at Blue Square, 2.35 at Stanleybet, 2.25 at StanJames, Gamebookers, Coral, Betway, Betsafe...) FT 3:0 RYMAN PREMIER Horsham Wimbledon 2 (2.30 @Coral) 3 units Horsham have been great at home this season, they have ten wins, one draw and two defeats at home, but this time it's a bit different it's mighty Wimbledon they're up against. Horsham are always great when some mid-table or struggling team comes to them, but they had a lot of problems with the best teams in the league. They managed to beat 16th Folkestone (1:0), 12th Boreham Wood (3:2), 15th Carshalton (4:1), 1st Chelmsford (narrow win in September, 2:1, both teams were without a couple of injured standard players), 19th Wealdstone (4:0), 10th Harrow (1:0), 9th Margate (1:0), 20th East Thurrock (3:0), 6th Hornchurch (3:1) and 22nd Leyton (5:1). They lost to 2nd Staines (2:4 in October) and 14th Maidstone (1:2 in December), and shared points with 7th Ramsgate (1:1 two weeks ago). The only result that kind of stands out is the win against Chelmsford back in September. Horsham will be without midfielder Brake (who was very missed on Saturday) and defender Geard, both due to suspension. Midfielders Carney and Charman, and terrific deaf forward Farrell are all major doubts for this match (injuries). All of these players are standard first-teamers. Horsham did bring in two new midfielders lately (Ward who played away at Carshalton because of the injuries and suspensions and still not 100% fit Hawthorne who still sits on the bench), but they failed to bring in two most important players they were interested about. Wimbledon really want to get promoted and who knows, if Chelmsford loses some more matches (like this Saturday, when they shockingly lost 0:4 at home to Hornchurch) and Wimbledon wins a couple of matches in a row, maybe they even get a chance for the title = automatic promotion to Conference South. I wrote a lot about them last time they have the most fans in this league by far and that means more money when a couple of players get injured. They've been doing it all season when someone gets injured, they just go out there and buy the best player from some rival or bring in a player on loan from leagues above who was already loaned to some Ryman Premier club. It's called having a cake and eating it too their opponents get weaker and they are always capable of putting out a team that can beat anyone at this level of football. They have no more suspension problems, most of the injured players are now back and this Saturday's 2:0 away win at in-form 10th Harrow filled them with some confidence that was desperately needed after that recent bad run. Wimbledon's individual quality and determination should once again prove to be the difference here. Horsham could find themself in the play-off zone at the end of the season, but Wimbledon will be there too and they're trying to get as close to Chelmsford as possible. Great odds, nice little value bet. (2.55 at Stanleybet amazing odds, 2.30 also at Tipico and Primebet, 2.25 at Bwin and Bet-at-home, 2.20 at Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power... ) FT 0:2 CONF SOUTH Dorchester Bishop's Stortford 2 (2.00 @StanJames) 3 units I thought about this match for a long time it appears everybody (including Dorchester's fans) thinks Bishop's Stortford will win this match by four or five goals, but I don't think it's going to be that easy. Bishop's Stortford really aren't the best away team in Conf South (6-2-4, 18:15) and I wouldn't bet on them if odds were lower than 2.00, but this is a good price and I'll be glad to take it after all. Dorchester have four handicap defeats in a row, another couple of players left them in the last few days, they have some injury doubts too, they're traditionally awful at home and they're the biggest relegation candidates at the moment if you ask me (I wrote about them a lot lately). Bishop's Stortford weren't very good away from home recently (a narrow win at Sutton, defeats at Braintree and Thurrock) but should be a lot better team in this match. They will miss two defenders, but they have a big squad and I don't see that as that big of a problem. They have two home wins in a row (2:1 vs 2nd Eastbourne, 5:3 vs Bognor) and if they want a play-off spot, they have to win matches like this. In fact, they have to win this match and if they don't underestimate their currently very poor opponents, they'll grab all three points here. (2.00 also at Blue Square and Betway, 1.91 at Gamebookers, Skybet, Paddy Power, PartyBets, only 1.85 at Stanleybet...) FT 0:4 |
