5.2.2008. -5 units
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SETANTA/RYMAN DOUBLE: St Albans Aldershot 2 @1.55 & Leyton Staines 2 @1.40 (2.17 @Bwin) 5 units Very nice odds for Conference National leaders Aldershot to win at Conf South strugglers, 20th St Albans, in the 5th round of Setanta Shield. I know this is only the 3rd cup competition by importance in England, but I also know how St Albans are struggling at the moment and I can't help but see some value in these odds. St Albans are in the relegation zone down in Conf South, they managed to win only one home match this season in the league (1-3-9, 8:27 at home the worst home goal-difference in the league) and they were awful this Saturday, lost 0:3 at home to 16th Maidenhead (they tried to shoot only three times in the whole match). They have three defeats (to 15th Cambridge, 22nd Sutton and 16th Maidenhead) and a draw (with 12th Braintree in December) in the last four home matches and they'll be without standard midfielder Bruce and best scorer Clarke both due to suspensions and new striker Hakim who is now a standard forward is cup-tied (another important striker Butler just went to Staines and a couple of players who were at St Albans a few seasons ago returned to the club recently, but Hakim being cup-tied and these suspensions are more important than those returns and Butler's departure). St Albans did manage to beat another Conf National high-flyers Torquay in the last round of Setanta Shield, but that was the biggest shock of that round by far (and these kinds of shocks don't happen very often) and Torquay's manager rested a lot of important players. Aldershot were at full-strength in the Setanta Shield 4th round and managed to beat league rivals Oxford (who are a much, much stronger team than St Albans this season) and, although I suppose this time their manager will rest a few players this time, if they take this match at least a bit serious, they will have no problem whatsoever (Aldershot's manager admits he'll rest one or two players, but, like he says, 'whoever plays will be champing at the bit'). Setanta Shield rules are very clear 'no fewer than ten of the 16 players named on the team sheet must have taken part in the club's two previous Football Conference fixtures'. Aldershot lost their striker Dixon to League One outfit Brighton recently, but Hylton, Joel Grant and their best striker John Grant who scored five goals in the last five matches and 18 goals all together this season stay put and I'm pretty confident that St Albans will concede a few goals here even if John Grant ends up on the bench. Aldershot are the current leaders (six points more than Torquay, but they played two matches more than Torquay) and the best away team in the Conference National (9-1-4, 24:18 away from home). They had an amazing run, won 12 times in 13 matches, then they lost twice in a row (to promotion candidates in Conf National), but quicly bounced back with a league win against Oxford and an FA Trophy win against another Conf South outfit, Braintree. It was 3:0 for Aldershot this Saturday Braintree didn't have a chance and I don't think St Albans stand much chance either. Last season, these two teams both played in Conf National it was 2:0 for Aldershot at their place and 5:3 also for Aldershot at St Albans' place. Nothing new to say about Leyton, 'the oldest club in London'. Their extremely young and unexperienced squad have 12 defeats in a row (their goal-difference in these 12 matches is 7:45), their last home win happened in October, all the best players left the club a long time ago and they will surely get relegated. I just saw those five goals they conceded this Saturday at Horsham some of those goals were very funny. Staines are one of the best away outfits in Ryman Premier, they are serious promotion candidates and they finally managed to win this Saturday (2:1 at Wealdstone), after they picked up only two points in three matches. They have a new striker Butler who came from a league above (St Albans) and a couple of players who have been injured are now are back in the team. Staines are currently 4th, but you should know that they played as many as five matches less than 2nd Hendon (they played less matches than all the other four teams in the play-off zone) and have only four points less than Hendon. 3rd Wimbledon have only one point more, but they played two matches more. Not the greatest odds imaginable, but fair odds would be 1.20... (2.13 at Gamebookers and PartyBets, 2.08 at Skybet, 2.04 at Sportingbet and Paddy Power, 2.02 at StanJames...) FT 0:4 / 2:2 |
