22.1.2008. +2 units
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RYMAN PREMIER Wealdstone East Thurrock 1 (2.00 @Gamebookers) 5 units 18th Wealdstone against 19th East Thurrock relegation fight indeed. I like these odds though, because I'd never offer more than 1.80 on Wealdstone here. Why? Well, they did lose two away matches in a row now, but they also had a couple of impressive results in a row before that, in December (2:0 at 14th Boreham Wood, 3:1 at home vs 15th Folkestone, 5:1 at 8th Harrow...). They brought in another highly rated defender on loan these days and a couple of players who were injured are back in the team. They're not the best home team in the world, but they're much better at home than East Thurrock are away from home and, last but not least, I expect a loud support from the home fans they have every right to sing and drink because, from the next season, Wealdstone will finally have their own pitch. These are fresh news supporters are volunteering to get their new pitch to shape before the next season and the least players can do is to win at home, vs poor East Thurrock. East Thurrock have 2-3-7 away from home, their recent results have been truly awful and I don't think they have much chance here. They lost their last two matches with a handicap (2:4 at home to Billericay, 0:3 away at Horsham) and their only positive results in the last month and a half were home wins against 14th Boreham Wood (1:0, thanx to the Wood's goalkeeper's mistake) and clueless, bottom of the table Leyton (also 1:0, one of the East Thurrock's fans put it like this: ''...I think the ball was apologising as it went over the line...'). Just take a look at their last three away matches 1:4 at Margate, 1:3 at Maidstone, 0:3 at Horsham. The fans are silent, the forum is dead, it won't be easy for them to stay in Ryman Premier this time. Nice odds... (2.00 also at... Well, everywhere except at StanJames and Sportingbet only 1.90 there... 2.10 at Stanleybet though and Pinnacle currently offer 1.78 for (-0.25)....) POSTPONED RYMAN PREMIER AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Billericay Wimbledon 1 (3.25 @Skybet) 3 units & X (3.50 @StanJames) 2 units I like these odds very much I'm not saying Billericay will win for sure, but I am saying this is a very nice value bet a home win brings us +4.75 units profit and even a draw brings us +2.00 units profit. Not much, but somehow I don't think Billericay will lose this match. Wimbledon players are going to be up for it after losing at Folkestone, but Billericay have always been their unlucky place. Last season, it was 3:0 for Billericay. Season before that, it was 2:1 for Billericay and two Wimbledon players got sent off. I wrote a lot about currently 11th Billericay before the postponed Billericay Folkestone match was going to be played. Their temporary management duo is doing a fine job after hitting an all-time-low a month ago. They brought in a very good striker Bricknell who scored on his debut, this Saturday away at Maidstone (Billericay won 1:0) and midfielder Shave who scored twice two and a half weeks ago away at East Thurrock (Billericay won 4:2), and a couple of players returned to the team after being injured for quite some time. After playing four league matches away from home (lost 0:1 at leaders Chelmsford and 1:3 at 4th Staines no big deal but won at 19th East Thurrock and 12th Maidstone), they're finally home and their fans are going to be very loud this time it's Wimbledon they're up against. After five league wins in a row, currently 3rd Wimbledon finally lost a match, at struggling Folkestone (2:3). That's a shame if they didn't, I'd stake more units against them. Like I said, Billericay is their unlucky place and I suppose they did relax a bit, now when they finally made it to the play-off zone. They'll stay 3rd regardless of the today's result and, after all, they won just five out of twelve away matches this season. Webb is out suspended, their manager said he's probably going to leave some standard players on the bench after that dissapointment at Folkestone (veteran Marcus Gayle and striker Jolly who played for reserves recently, but battled his way back to the 1st team, could both be in the starting eleven) and, I don't know, these odds are just too bloody high. It's a win-win-lose situation this time and Billericay should at least take a point from this match. After all, if we look at those five wins in a row for Wimbledon, we can see this pattern that I like very much they were great against Carshalton and Staines, won with a handicap both times, but then they barely managed to beat Hendon (they were leading 3:0 and the match ended 3:2 very lucky win), 2:1 away win at 12th Maidstone was also hard-fought and very lucky (they were even losing 0:1) and a 2:1 home win vs 13th Ashford was also hard-fought and narrow. After that came an unexpected 2:3 defeat at Folkestone. Maybe it's time for a handicap defeat after that, they'd probably start winning again. I like Billericay chances here very much... (1.79 at Pinnacle for (+0.5) or 1X sounds great, much better than Paddy Power's 1.67 or Gamebookers' 1.62 for 1X... Home win is 3.10 at Stanleybet, Sportingbet and Primebet and 3.00 everywhere else... 3.50 for a draw can be found anywhere...) FT 2:2 |
