19.1.2008. -6 units
|
CONF SOUTH Eastleigh St Albans OVER 3.5 (2.63 @Blue Square) 6 units Eastleigh are a good team this season, but after a great run (five wins and one draw in seven matches) that lasted untill a month ago, they relaxed quite a bit and won only once in the last six matches (lost only twice though away at Cup heroes and great hosts Havant and at home to 2nd Eastbourne). They still have a great chance for a play-off spot of course they're currently 9th, but with only one point less than 5th Basingstoke (play-off zone). Their last two matches were full of goals they won 4:3 at Basingstoke and then shared points in a shocking match at home vs Bath City that ended 4:4 two weeks ago. Last Saturday they played an FA Trophy match away at strong Conference National outfit Crawley and lost 1:2, but now it's league time again at home, versus struggling St Albans. Marshall, Forbes and Sales all scored three goals for Eastleigh recently Marshall (who came on loan from Grays after Scannell left at the end of the year) in the last two league matches, Forbes in the last three and Sales in the last four league matches. Oh, they will score here, don't worry about that the right questions is how many goals will they score and how many will they concede. They will be without their captain and standard defender Harris due to suspension nice. They still have some injury problems too and I expect them to concede at least one or two goals in this match. Massive value in these odds... St Albans concede most goals per match away at home they condeded 25 in 11 matches. They're also bottom of the league (22nd, with only three wins in 23 matches, goal-difference 19:49). They changed a couple of managers (Anderson was fired on January 2nd) and enormous bunch of players this season already (only two players and a goalkeeper played in both 1st and 23rd league match of the season all together 41 player have played for them this season) but apparently nothing works. They have three defeats in a row (0:4 away at 17th Cambridge, 1:2 at home to 21nd Sutton, 1:3 away at 12th Havant). Practically all of their away matches at play-off candidates produced a lot of goals (4:3 win at Bishop's Stortford, 1:4 defeat at Hampton, 4:3 win at Bromley, 1:3 defeat at Basingstoke, 1:3 defeat at Havant) okay, it was only 0:2 at Newport in August and only 0:3 at Bath in September, but that was a long time ago and Newport and Bath (along with Eastbourne) score the least goals of all serious play-off candidates (less then Lewes, Hampton, Bromley, Bishop's Stortford and Eastleigh) anyway. Did I happen to mention that they will be without four (4) suspended players silly me? Oh yes standard winger Bruce (played in 21 out of 23 league matches), central midfielder Stevenson (played in all ten league matches since he joined in late October), full back Faal-Thomas (joined exactly when Stevenson joined too, played in all matches except for two matches in December when he was injured or suspended, I'm not sure, mea culpa) and left-back Vargas (joined exactly when Faal-Thomas and Stevenson joined to, played in most matches) are all out suspended. (2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle offer 1.88 and 10Bet offer 1.87 for OVER 2.75...) FT 1:1 CONF SOUTH Bishop's Stortford Welling OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 5 units I wrote about Bishop's Stortford a week and a half ago when they trashed Cup heroes Havant 4:1. If I update the facts, I could really just copy/paste what I wrote then. Bishop's Stortford aren't the best home team this season (5-3-4, goal difference 26:20), they had an on/off season so far, but they're still very serious play-off candidates (currently 8th, only one point less than 5th Basingstoke, but you should know that they played three matches less than Basingstoke). Their best scorer Pearson scored 13 goals in the last 8 matches (in all competitions) and he's currently the second best scorer of the Conference South. If we look at Bishop's last six home matches in all competitions, we see a lot of goals (8:0 win over Canvey in the FA Trophy 1st round, 5:2 win over Welwyn in Hearts Senior Cup, a Boxing Day 3:4 defeat to Braintree in the league, 4:0 win vs Cambridge in the league, 4:1 win vs Havant in the league, 2:2 draw vs mighty Halifax in the FA Trophy 2nd round right, that's six matches then went into OVER 3.5 in a row, even if we ignore the first two gigantic wins over much worse outfits, it still looks very good). Only Hampton score more than Bishop's Stortford at home and Bishop's Stortford also concede a lot more at home than other play-off candidates. Welling are currently 18th, very near the relegation zone and they're still looking for a new manager. They had a weird away schedule so far they played only at three serious play-off candidates (Lewes, Eastbourne and Hampton) all of the other away matches were against fellow strugglers or mid-table teams with no real promotion chances. It was 0:4 at Hampton, and only 0:2 at Lewes and 0:1 at Eastbourne, but the matches at Lewes and Eastbourne have been played four months ago. They didn't score much nor concede much away from home (2-2-7, goal-difference 7:18), but they've got nothing to lose here and they could score Hampton's defence really isn't the best in the league. They will surely concede and I think they could concede a lot of goals this time. After all, they have three OVER 3.5 matches in a row (2:2 at home vs Thurrock, 2:3 defeat away at Fisher, 0:4 at Hampton). They will also be without two suspended players striker Hill doesn't play much and that's not such a big deal, but the other suspended players is standard defender (and one of the two temporary managers) Moore who played in 23 out of 24 league matches so far. Both last season matches between these two teams went OVER 3.5 too. 2.88? Well of course, thank you very much... (2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle and 10Bet both offer 1.88 for OVER 2.75...) POSTPONED CONF SOUTH Newport Havant 1 (1.85 @Betway) 5 units Only three days after the Swansea replay, Havant face another team from Wales and this time they have to travel there. Newport did dissapoint their fans two weeks ago when they only managed to share points with Hayes at home, but before that they trashed Weston 5:0 at home (and, before that, won 3:2 away at Dorchester) and now they face Cup heroes Havant. Newport will surely try to beat the team that managed to beat Swansea and Havant players will probably still have hangover and they could daydream about the big match at Liverpool during the match just like they daydreamed about the big match vs Swansea when they played at Bishop's Stortford a week and a half ago and lost 1:4. After all, Newport are a very strong team, they're currently 6th, just outside the play-off zone, but they have only one point less and played four matches less than 5th Basinsgtoke. At home, they're very good (6-3-1, goal-difference 22:9), they had six home wins in a row (in all competitions) before the draw vs Hayes (and an FA Trophy 1:2 defeat to mighty Torquay last Saturday). Havant players deserve a day-off after their FA Cup heroics and I'm sure they will miss motivation for this match. They will also miss their standard left-back Poate (who created two of the goals from the left vs Swansea) due to suspension and they're traditionally lousy away from home. In fact, they're the worst home team in the Conference South by far they managed to win only once in ten (10) matches (goal-difference 12:24). They managed to win an away match in the league only once, in the 2nd round, back in August, at terrible hosts Dorchester. Let's take a look at their away league matches in the last month, shall we? 2:4 defeat at on/off Fisher, 1:1 at struggling Bognor, 0:4 defeat at league leaders Lewes, 1:4 defeat at play-off candidates Bishop's Stortford. Terrible away form. Last year, it was 1:0 for the hosts at Newport I expect a similar result or even a handicap win for the home team. This asian handicap (it's a normal home win, of course) at 10Bet and Pinnacle looks awesome... (1.83 at Stanleybet, StanJames and Blue Square, 1.80 elsewhere...) POSTPONED CONF NORTH Hyde Alfreton OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 3 units Two teams that play very open football it's all very obvious if we look at their results, especially lately. Hyde are currently 5th but they're a bit out of form recently, haven't won in four league matches, but they score even when they lose (1:3 at home to Stalybridge, 2:2 at home vs Harrogate, 1:3 away at Stalybridge, 2:4 at home to Blythe) and concede practically in every match. At home, they scored 31 (only Kettering scored more) and conceded 20 goals (like some teams from the relegation zone) in 13 matches. Alfreton are currently 12th. They played only 11 away matches so far, scored 14 and conceded 16 goals, but their recent matches have been full of goals (2:2 at Hucknall, 1:2 at Boston, 2:1 at home over Hucknall, 3:4 at home to Stalybridge). It was 3:0 for Hyde at Alfreton in October and both of last season's matches between these two teams also produced a lot of goals goals (2:1 at Hyde, 2:2 at Alfreton). Alfreton will miss suspended striker Reet and, more important, Hyde will miss suspended central midfielder Pickford. (2.36 at Stanleybet for OVER 3.5, 1.50 for OVER 2.5... Pinnacle offer 1.76 and 10Bet offer 1.74 for OVER 2.75...) FT 0:2 CONF NORTH Hucknall Southport 2 (2.00 @Skybet) 3 units Hucknall are currently 17th, but they have only four points more and already played four matches more than 20th Hinckley (relegation zone). They're one of the worse home teams in Conference North with only three wins in 14 matches (3-3-8, goal-difference 18:25) and they also have four defeats in a row. Centre half Timmons left and joined Ilkeston a couple of days ago, and midfielder Robinson and defender Macpherson are both out suspended just like against Kettering last Saturday when Hucknall lost 0:2 at home. I expect a similar result here. Southport are 2nd, they're one of the best away outfits in the league (6-2-3, goal-difference 17:11) and they were great away at 15th Gainsborough last time out, won 3:0. A couple of players have returned to the team after being injured and probably the only absentee will be suspended defender Lee. They haven't lost a league match for three months and these odds look very good. (1.91 at Gamebookers, Coral, PartyBets and also at Pinnacle currently... Only 1.80 at Stanleybet....) FT 1:2 |
