12.1.2008. +6.5 units
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RYMAN PREMIER Billericay Folkestone 1 (1.85 @Sportingbet) 8 units Billericay are currently 12th and Folkestone are 18th, but that doesn't mean much in the Ryman Premier this season. There are just two points between these two outfits and just eight points between 5th (play-off zone) Ramsgate and 18th Folkestone. But!, all that doesn't always mean that a match could go either way (in terms of 50/50 chances). In this case, Billericay have much more chance for a win then the odds suggest. Billericay have always been playing very good at home. This was a shock-season for them so far though and that's why their home form is only 5-1-4 (goal-difference 21:14). The last time I placed a bet on them, they were playing at home vs mid-table Hornchurch and lost (and slipped right into relegation zone), but that proved to be the turning point, the all-time-low, call it whatever you want. I knew it had to happen, but at the moment I've thought it already did happen. After that 0:2 home defeat, Billericay won 1:0 away at 21st Hastings, won 2:1 at home vs 15th Harlow, then narrowly lost 0:1 away at league leaders Chelmsford, but won 4:2 away at 17th East Thurrock and then finally lost 1:3 away at 4th Staines (who are one of the three best teams in the Ryman league right now). Now they're finally home again, some long-term injury victims finally came back into the team (very important central defender Blewitt is finally back), new scorer Bricknel who scored 12 goals for Leyton this season will have his debut (midfielder Shave is another fresh signing and he scored two goals last Saturday at East Thurrock) and they couldn't have a better opponent here struggling Folkestone. Their temporary management duo is doing a fine job and that's why they've got another month for proving they deserve a full-time job to the club's chairman. Folkestone's away form doesn't look awful it's 4-1-7 (goal-difference 11:15). But!, you should know that those away wins are already forgotten. They had six away wins in a row (in all competitions, not just the league) in September and October, yes, but now they have nine away defeats in a row (in all competitions). They were the worst home team in the first couple of months of the season, but now they have three home wins in a row. Everything changes, right? And, after all, three mentioned home wins aren't really that big a deal if we look at their opponents in those matches. Horsham aren't a bad team, but they're awful away from home and it was their post-FA Cup match. Hastings (1:0) are 21st (second to bottom) and Leyton (2:0) managed to lost all the players (22nd, bottom). But I like that aspect of this bet, Folkestone won their last three home matches and it won't be a disaster if they lose this one. After all, Billericay are a wealthier club, they're playing at home and have been underperforming in the first part of the season... Right. Besides that, Folkestone just lost their striker Shittu (I'm not kidding, that's his name) who scored a couple of goals for them in December, skipper Edge faces a late fitness test and goalkeeper Mitten returns after quite some time maybe he's a bit rusty then. Last time these two outfits played a match (at Folkestone, in the FA Cup last qualifying round, a month and a half ago), the result was 2:0 for the guests from Billericay. Folkestone fans' thoughts: ''... Odds are that we will be the lowest goalscorers in the Premier again this season. Believe it or not, it was like that even when we had JD getting 19 for us before Christmas when he left. As the man said at the shareholders meeting we simply don't score enough goals. Won't someone, somewhere, find us the cash to pay a decent striker; Brems is great in terms of effort but hasn't scored the goals we would have liked from him and Ellis and Shittu are now gone with no real sign of a replacement. I support the club rather than the manager or any particular player(s) but we've got to find some more goals from somehwere. And please Harry let's not have the nonsense about Friendy playing up front - Liam's an excellent defender or even attacking left-sided midifeld at a push...'' Eight out of ten Folkestone fans predict a handicap win for Billericay. Who am I to disagree? (1.85 also at Bwin, 1.83 at StanJames, 1.80 elsewhere... 1.90 at Stanleybet though and Pinnacle were brilliant with their 1.98, but that doesn't last long, does it?...) POSTPONED RYMAN/CONF-SOUTH DOUBLE: Leyton Harrow 2 @1.57 & Hampton & Richmond Thurrock 1 @1.53 (2.4021 @Bet365) 4 units Leyton are a complete mess currently and really look like Slough from last season. They have seven defeats in a row and their goal-difference in these seven matches is, believe it or not, 5:30. Yes, you read it right. 5:30. All the good players left (their best scorer Bricknel, the only guy who had some chances to score at Folkestone last Saturday, who scored 12 goals already this season and it's a helluva lot when you're playing for Leyton, just left too and joined Billericay) and the kids who are currently playing for them can't compete at this level. Harrow trashed Heybridge 5:0 last Saturday (I saw the match highlights, Harrow played great) and scored five when they played against Leyton last time too. They're getting better and better away from home and should score a couple of goals at Leyton. Hampton & Richmond lost only one home match this season and that was back in August, on the opening day of the season. They did and probably still do have some injury problems, but even without five players they managed to trash Welling 4:0 last Saturday. Bloody hell, their manager Devonshire even managed to break the 'manager-of-the-month' curse. Thurrock will be without their suspended defender Swaine, injured defender Clarke and striker McKenzie who will probably miss the whole season. Another defender Anderson could be missing too due to his injury. Striker Malcolm, who scored two goals in four matches for Thurrock, left and joined Weymouth. Thurrock have a very shaky defense they conceded 18 goals in the last six matches. It was 5:0 for Hampton at Thurrock in September. (2.40 also at Skybet, 2.32 at Gamebookers, Bwin, Bet-at-home... Only 2.19 at Stanleybet...) FT 0:3 / 2:3 RYMAN PREMIER Ramsgate Hendon 1 (2.40 @StanJames) 3 units Very nice odds, bookies don't see the big picture again (or do they?). Ramsgate are great at home (8-3-1, goal-difference 27:10) and Hendon are pretty good away from home (6-2-4, goal-difference 34:21), but that's what you see after only few minutes of researching. October 6th. That's when Ramsgate lost a league home match last time. After that 2:0 vs Chelmsford (!), 4:1 vs Hastings, 2:1 vs Heybridge, 3:1 vs Ashford, 1:1 vs Hornchurch, 1:1 vs Wimbledon, 2:1 vs Folkestone. Two draws (Wimbledon are Wimbledon and Ramsgate just beat Hornchurch away from home in the League Cup to make up for the draw at home) and five wins. I seriously think Ramsgate will be higher on the league table then Hendon by the end of the season. They have a very big squad and two suspended players (Schulz and Davis) won't be that big a deal. Ramsgate aren't that good away from home, but that's another story. They're cleary underestimated here. Hendon were, now it's fair enough to say it, never serious title candidates. They had a massive run in the first couple of months of the season, they were even league leaders for quite a time, but it's obvious now that they lack funds for something bigger and Chelmsford, Wimbledon, Staines and Ramsgate will all most probably finish higher then Hendon. Hendon now have two consecutive defeats (2:3 at Wimbledon and 0:5 at home to poor Carshalton), but it was obvious that something's wrong even when they only managed to share points at home with Heybridge and Harrow in late December. I still remember that 1:5 defeat at Chelmsford three months ago (I was there to bet on Chelmsford, of course). Yes, Hendon can trash their struggling opponents away from home (11:1 at Leyton, 4:0 at Folkestone), but when they travel to one of the 'big boys' (Chelmsford, Wimbledon, they are yet to play at Staines and now Ramsgate), they're not so good. They have some late-fitness tests to do, standard defender Maclaren is suspended and they are still a modest club they know they can't be the winners of this league and they except the fact that important players are going to leave them every now and then because of more money elsewhere (something that the 'big boys' in this league don't do). I'm not saying this will surely be a home win I'm just saying that these are great-looking odds (it should be 2.10 for a Ramsgate win if you ask me). In the long run, this is a winning bet regardless to the outcome of this particular match. (2.40 also at Sportingbet and Bwin, 2.38 at Bet365, Skybet and Paddy Power... 1.94 for DRAW NO BET at Pinnacle looks delicious and it would've been an official bet for at least 4 or 5 units if limits were higher at Pinnacle... Only 2.25 at Stanleybet...) FT 2:1 CONFERENCE NORTH Barrow Gainsborough 1 (2.00 @Bwin) 3 units Barrow are still the in-form team in the Conference North. They're currently 13th, but the narrow 1:2 defeat at 9th Burscough last Saturday was their first defeat in eight league matches. The new management team is obviously doing a fine job there. When they're playing away from home, it's probably best to bet on a draw (just look at their December results), but when they're playing at home (and they were without a home match for the whole December) ... Well, lately, you grab odds like these and wish for the bad luck to ignore you this time. Barrow now have three home wins in a row looks fantastic, 4:0 vs 4th Telford, 4:1 vs 9th Burscough (both back in November) and, finally a home match after more than a month, on the New Year's day, 4:1 vs 20th Vauxhall. They will be without two suspended players here that's why I'm staking only three units, but I'm definately staking them. Very nice odds. Gainsborough are currently 15th, they're one of the three worst away outfits in the league (2-2-6, 11:23), they have two defeats in a row and they're traditionally awful away at Barrow. A year ago, it was 3:0 for Barrow. Two years ago, it was 3:1 to Barrow. This season, it was 1:1 at Gainsborough. Gainsborough were without a league win for three and a half months, then managed to beat Boston and Hucknall away from home (barrowly, both were 1:0 wins), but then lost two (I'm talking about strong handicap defeats here) in a row again, to the very same Boston and to Southport (0:3 last Saturday). Gainsborough have a small squad, their main goal this season is to stay in this league, they lost a couple of players recently, they desperately need a striker (they just brought in some guy from Eagle Bitter United Counties League Premier Division, but the fans aren't sure will he be able to compete at this level of football), their not very succesful temporary manager just became their official manager (supporters aren't really sure why), Parker is out injured... Like I said, very nice odds. (2.00 also at Stanleybet, Skybet and Primebet, 1.99 at 10Bet, 1.95 at Betway, Expekt, Bet24, Tipico...) FT 4:1 CONFERENCE NORTH Stalybridge Harrogate 1 /DRAW NO BET (2.10 @Betway) 3 units Incredible odds. Stalybridge have six league wins in a row and Harrogate won only once in the last five league matches. Stalybridge are currently 7th, Harrogate are 3rd, and these odds are mental. Stalybridge will lose a match soon, it's the law of the big numbers, but why now? These six wins weren't all against poor teams. They managed to beat 5th Hyde twice, home and away, they were awesome against play-off candidates Boston (3:0 at home), they were great last Saturday, away at 11th Alfreton (won 4:3). Their manager also broke the manager-of-the-month curse and they just signed striker James Dean (yes) on loan from League 2 outfit Bury once again (he returned to Bury before New Year, but he's back now and he'll be staying untill the end of the season). Not that they need another striker with Hall obviously on fire (scored all four goals at Alfreton, all together 16 goals this season, and he's now the joint best goalscorer in the league... Btw, Stalybridge players scored 20 goals in last six matches), but I don't mind really. Harrogate aren't playing bad away from home (5-4-2), but if we look at their last 7 away matches (in all competitions), we can see only one win (at 18th Blythe, on crazy Boxing Day) and as much as four defeats. They could use a striker or two, fans would be happy with a point at in-form Stalybridge and all I can do is take this manificent DRAW NO BET. Low stakes though... (You can improvize this DNB yourselves. Home win is 2.50 at Expekt, Bet365, Skybet, Primebet, 2.45 at Bet-at-home, 2.40 at Stanleybet, Betsafe, Gamebookers, Sportingbet, Bwin... A draw is 3.60 at StanJames, Coral, Skybet, Primebet... ) FT 3:2 |
