5.1.2008. -8.28 units
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CONFERENCE NORTH Redditch Vauxhall 1 (1.91 @StanJames) 7 units 17th Redditch played great against improved, 8th Worcester a couple of days ago won 3:0 and now they have a chance for another three points. 19th Vauxhall, who lost 1:4 at Barrow, will be without four suspended players who were all sent off in the 2:3 defeat at Telford (they had a whole squad to chose from at Barrow didn't help obviously) Egerton, no1 goalkeeper Murphy, standard midfielder Field and one of the best strikers in the league Taylor (who's waiting for an offer higher than 50 thousand pounds to get away from Vauxhall). They are also the worst away team in Conference North (1-1-9, goal-difference 11:33). Redditch aren't unbeatable at home (3-4-3, goal-difference 12:9) but they should beat Vauxhall without all those suspended players quite easily. They have a couple of new players (defender Daly turned out to be a great signing) and no suspension problems. (1.91 also at Bet365 and Skybet, 1.90 at Betway and Bwin...) FT 2:0 FA CUP Chasetown Cardiff OVER 2.75 (2.07 @10Bet) 5 units Chasetown Cardiff OVER 4 (5.10 @Bet365) 1 unit Here we go again well done Chasetown, you've made it all the way to the FA Cup 3rd round proper, bravo guys, but I'm afraid your journey is over. Chasetown are currently 6th in the Southern Midlands League, they're just outside the play-off zone and, if they continue to work hard, maybe we could see them in the Southern Premier league next season. They're doing fine in the league lately, four wins in last five outings, and they have already kicked out of the FA Cup a lot of teams that are above them in the pyramid (Cambridge City, Nuneaton, Team Bath and Port Vale) but this should prove to be a mission impossible. Cardiff are 11th in the Championship (that's, wait a minute, six! leagues above Southern Midlands), but they have only three points less than 6th Ipswich. Who knows, maybe we'll even see them in the Premiership next season. They have a respectable squad (everybody's heard of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Robbie Fowler, on-loan Man City keeper Kasper Schmeichel...) they're solid away from home and we could see another FA Cup trashing (remember Horsham?) here, that's why I'll have an additional bet here too (that single unit is returned if exactly 4 goals are scored). Cardiff will have a whole squad to chose from except for McPhail, but I suppose their manager will field out a slightly younger squad (for instance, 17-year old Ramsey who was offered 3 million pounds by Liverpool will be in the team and Scheichel won't be between the sticks) anyway and that's just what we need here. The boys from Cardiff should score many goals in this match, but who knows, maybe they even concede and turn someone from the Chasetown squad into a local hero. (Pinnacle offers 2.09 and Bet365 offers 2.05 for OVER 2.75, but Bet365 also offers every asian OVER you can think of everything between OVER 1.5 for 1.18 and OVER 4.25 for 5.50...) FT 1:3 CONFERENCE SOUTH Eastleigh Bath City 1 /DRAW NO BET (1.88 @10Bet) 5 units Eastleigh played great at Basingstoke, picked up all three points after a couple of not very good results (but also very tough fixtures). This will be a tough match too, but 1.88 for DNB is something I have to take. Eastleigh lost a great winger Scannell, but another winger Marshall just joined them on loan from Grays and he was the man of the match at Basingstoke (scored a late winner). Bath City will be without standard midfielder Hogg due to his suspension and he scored twice in the last three matches (strikers Edwards and Gilroy started the season great, but now they're totally out of form). Bath City played five, let's say easy matches won three times, shared points twice. Eastleigh is a much better team than Dorchester, Maidenhead, Weston or Bognor (all relegation candidates) and I can't see an away win here. It was 2:0 for the hosts at Bath City and it's revenge time. (1.88 also at Pinnacle, 1.65 at Betway and you can also improvize a DRAW NO BET yourselves Bet365 offers 2.40 and Skybet offers 2.38 for a home win and StanJames and Skybet offer 3.60 for a draw...) FT 4:4 CONFERENCE SOUTH Dorchester Cambridge City 2 /DRAW NO BET (1.81 @10Bet) 5 units Dorchester haven't won a league match for four (4!) months. They are constantly losing the most important players and I doubt they will save themselves from being relegated this season. They scored only four goals in their last six league matches and a draw here would be a big surprise a home win would be a shock result of the day and that's why these odds can't be ignored. Take a look at the latest news from Dorchester: ''...Four players though, who won't be turning out for the county town outfit anymore are defenders Sonny Cobbs and Ryan Hill, keeper Darren Behcet and striker Dani Rodrigues. Cobbs' loan spell has ended and he returns to Brighton while Behcet has been recalled by Yeovil...''. Cambridge started the new year with a great 4:0 win vs St Albans (they have also won 2:0 away at St Albans a week ago) Gash scored a hat-trick and he is now the 3rd best scorer in the league. They have three wins in the last four away matches (in all competitions) and should take all the points here. (1.83 at Pinnacle, 1.70 at Betway and you can also improvize a DRAW NO BET yourselves Bet365 and Betway offer 2.40 for an away win but you can find at least 2.38 anywhere and StanJames and Skybet offer 3.60 for a draw...) FT 3:2 CONF SOUTH/RYMAN DOUBLE: Hampton & Richmond Welling 1 @1.62 & Chelmsford Hastings 1 @1.25 (2.025 @Skybet) 5 units Eight league matches with no win for Welling, four goals scored in those eight matches (they were without a gol for six straight matches and then scored two at home vs poor Thurrock and another two away at struggling Fisher they shared points vs Thurrock and lost at Fisher in the end), their inexperienced manager is very close to getting fired, terrible results against terrible teams lately what can I do, the odds are just too freakin' high. On the other hand, if we look at the last eight Hampton's matches, we see five wins, two draws and a new year's day defeat at poor Sutton who will fight for every point from now on, I tell you. Hampton are a great team this season, they surprised everyone including me, and they are very good at home. Really can't see nothing but a strong home win here. Three defeats in a row for Hastings, three wins in a row for Chelmsford who are the top of the table with only two points more than Hendon they're motivated enough. Hastings will be without their most dangerous scorer Adams and also Olorunda due to suspensions, and a couple of injured players too. A handicap win should happen here, but no one is offering one... (1.96 at Bet365 and Digibet, 1.92 at Bwin, 1.91 at Paddy Power, only 1.79 at Stanleybet...) FT 4:0 / 1:1 SOUTHERN PREMIER Hemel Hempstead King's Lynn 2 (2.20 @Sportingbet) 4 units Hemel Hempstead are a strange team. They're always in or just outside the play-off zone (currently they're 6th), they're one of the two best away outfits in the league (along with King's Lynn), but at home they're terrible, only Corby are worse. 2-4-4 at home really doesn't look good if you want to promote, does it? A couple of days ago, they even lost away from home, at poor, struggling, 20th Cirencester and they haven't won a match in more than a month. King's Lynn are the league leaders, Sedgmore decided to stay, but they have only two points more than Halesowen so more points are welcome anytime. Away from home, they're great (7-2-3, goal-difference 20:10) and they lost their last match more than a month ago. Hemel will be without their defender Sweeney due to suspension btw they have serious discipline problems the defeat at Cirencester was their 5th match in a row with one of the players sent off. It was 2:2 at King's Lynn last Saturday, but last time these teams played at Hemel, it was 5:1 for King's Lynn. I don't expect such a high win, but I wouldn't protest if it's meant to be. And yes, I just found out that Hemel just lost probably their best player (''...Our best player against Bashley and the only player thats got pace in our team Steve Sinclair has left. Losing Sinclair is a serious blow. The forwards who replaced Thomas and Sippetts are not good enough and are lightweight...') and another couple of players too (''... Chris Dillon was recalled from his loan spell by Histon following the transfer of Cliff Akurang from the Cambridgeshire side, defender Kameron Abbassi who joined HHTFC this season has joined Halesowen Town, the popular winger Steve Sinclair has joined Barton Rovers and midfielder Dwain Williams has joined Northwood but on a dual registration as Northwood are in the Ryman League...''). (2.20 also at Bet365, 2.10 at Skybet, Bet-at-home, Paddy Power and Digibet, 2.00 at Stanleybet and Bwin, 1.89 at Pinnacle for (-0.25)...) FT 4:2 RYMAN DOUBLE: Folkestone Leyton 1 @1.40 & Hendon Carshalton 1 @1.50 (2.10 @Sportingbet) 3 units Folkestone started the season as an away team, but things have changed recently Folkestone have two home wins in a row, they apparently played good even at mighty Ramsgate, and they should nail the third in a row against poor Leyton who currently look like Slough from last season the most important players left the club and and they're the bottom of the table, with only 15 points out of 23 matches and goal-difference 27:58 (5:25 in the last four matches!). Carshalton play awful away from home (2-0-7, second worst away team in the Ryman Premier) and Hendon are the biggest positive surprise of the league so far. They're second but they're still very modest about their promotion chances they almost managed to pick up a point at mighty Wimbledon a few days ago they were losing 0:3 and the match ended 3:2 for the hosts. It was 2:0 for Hendon at Carshalton in October. Carshalton won their last away match in September at East Thurrock, they have a very young squad and probably the lowest budget in the league. O'Sullivan and Haule scored 28 goals together so far for Hendon and I except at least a couple of goals from the home team. After three home draws at Hendon, a win is a must. (2.10 also at Bet365, 2.01 at Paddy Power, 1.97 at Stanleybet, 1.96 at Bwin, 1.95 at Digibet, 1.91 at Skybet...) FT 2:0 / 0:5 CONF NORTH DOUBLE: Hyde Blyth 1 @1.45 & Boston Leigh RMI 1 @1.60 (2.32 @Bwin) 3 units Hyde have 8-1-3 at home and they're dying to get back on track. Blyth will be without two suspended players left back Boyle and Gildea. They're not playing good away from home (2-3-5, goal-difference 8:14) and they lost their last two league matches. Hyde are also having a bad mini-run, picking up only one point out of nine in their last three fixtures, but they have a stronger squad than Blyth and they're playing at home this time. Leigh RMI have 1-2-8 away from home (goal-difference 8:21), four defeats in the last five matches and they're definately one of the biggest relegation candidates. Boston are one of the best home teams in the league (6-2-3, goal-difference 21:12), they have two nice wins in a row and should pick up all the points here. (Same odds at Betway, Primebet and 10Bet, 2.27 at Stanleybet, 2.26 at Blue Square, Coral and Skybet...) FT 2:4 / 5:1 |
