1.12.2007. +3 units
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FA CUP Staines Peterborough 2 (1.60 @Gamebookers) 7 units Okay, bravo Staines, you showed great spirit against Stockport in the last round, I saw the match, I saw Staines' excellent keeper Allaway, I saw some solid forwards, but I also saw a defense who could've condeded at least five or six goals if they only ran out of luck. They managed to win on penalties, again thanx to Allaway, but some players barely walked already in the second half. This time there are no Sky cameras and Staines are facing even a tougher opponent, the in-form Peterborough (won 7:0 in their last league outing) led by a Ferguson not Sir Alex, but his son. Staines' manager also has some injury problems (five players are still doubtful). Very nice odds, I was hoping for a 1.40... (1.60 also at Betsafe, Bwin, Expekt, PartyBets, Primebet, Sportingbet, Unibet... A lot of bookies are covering FA Cup at this stage...) FT 0:5 CONF SOUTH Bognor Regis Welling 1 (2.25 @StanJames) 6 units Bognor Regis (currently 19th) are finally waking up and they're doing it in style, especially at home. They have four home wins in a row the results are 5:0 vs Eastbourne Utd in the Setanta Shield cup, 2:0 vs 14th Cambridge, 3:0 vs 16th Hayes & Yeading and, finally, 2:1 vs mighty Havant in the FA Trophy. They just brought in another experienced midfielder, Gargan is coming back into the team also and Nightingale, Beck and Haddow appear to be in top-form. It seems that the new Bognor's manager is doing a fine job over there. Welling crashed out of FA Trophy last weekend they lost away at Ryman strugglers Wealdstone and they're struggling themsleves too. It's not just the cups (they're out of all the important cups) in the league, they have 1-1-3 in their least five league matches. They lost 0:2 at home to mid-table Braintree, than lost 1:2 away at mid-table Basingstoke, than managed to beat crazy Bromley 3:1 at home, shared points in a goalless draw away at poor, poor Dorchester (20th) and, finally, lost 0:2 at home to 18th Maidenhead. Add an 0:1 FA Trophy defeat to strugglers from a league below and we get a terrible form. Welling's manager still has some problems with injuries, a couple of players are coming back but they were out for quite some time, standard defender Carpenter left the club, utility man Cottrell just went to Dorchester, they will have to travel three hours for this match and, what can I say, I love these odds. These two outfits already played a match this season it was 3:2 for Bognor at Welling. (2.25 also at Stanleybet, Skybet, Betway and Primebet, 2.20 elsewhere... Pinnacle offers 1.82 for (-0.25) sounds good too...) FT 0:0 CONF SOUTH St Albans Bromley OVER 3.5 (2.88 @Blue Square) 5 units St Albans (currently 21st) still can't get it together, the players are leaving or they're being fired by the management to get some funds for bringing in new players that didn't come yet and their last league win was a shocking away win at Bromley, on October 23rd (4:3 for St Albans). After that, they picked up only two points in four league matches and lost away at Maidenhead in the FA Trophy. They conceded nine goals in last four matches, scored much less, but every now and then this weird team explodes and then they are capable of scoring four goals in 90 minutes themselves (did it at Bishop's Stortford and Bromley). When we look at their matches played against promotion candidates, we can see that majority of that matches produced a lot of goals. But, the main reason for taking this bet is, of course, Bromley. Believe it or not, but Bromley players managed to play no less than ten (10) league matches in a row that produced at least four goals. They score and concede a lot even when they play against teams that usually can't score or concede. I saw all of their match highlights and these odds are again fantastic. They scored 25 and conceded 22 goals in their last ten league matches and now they want revenge. Bromley is a typical OVER team really, they attack all the time and their defense goes to sleep every now and then. Great odds. (Pinnacle offers 1.93 for OVER 2.75, Stanleybet offers 1.55 for OVER 2.5, 2.47 for OVER 3.5, 2.81 for 4-6 GOALS option and 20.7 for OVER 6.5...) FT 1:0 CONF SOUTH Lewes Bath City 1 (1.95 @Betway) 4 units Well, what else can I do after that midweek show (Lewes won 5:1 away at 5th Bishop's Stortford and took the lead on the table again) than to take this bet, at these odds? Lewes are again flying high, they have four league wins in a row, would've been seven wins in a row if we would exclude the FA Cup defeat to mighty Mansfield. Groves scored five and Booth scored four goals in last three matches and I can't see Bath City stopping them. Bath City are currently 4th and I really believed they are going to beat Hayes a few days ago comfortably but, instead of that, their keeper couldn't get to the match because of the traffic (!), they conceded two goals and they were happy with a point in the end (2:2, both of their goals were penalties). Bath City aren't a bad team, but Lewes are IMO just too strong for them now and they got even stronger a few days ago when winger Duncan arrived from Wycombe. These are the matches Lewes have to win if they want the title at the end of this season, and I know they do. Currently, they are the biggest title favorites in Conference South, their mini-crisis is now long gone and forgotten and I think they will win this and, if Bath City plays like they did at home against Hayes, probably even keep a clean sheet. (1.93 at Pinnacle at this moment, 1.90 at Stanleybet, 1.85 at Sportingbet and Primebet, 1.83 at Bet365, 1.80 or less elsewhere...) FT 1:0 CONF NORTH Worcester Barrow 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 3 units Worcester are currently 12th and Barrow are 14th (Worcester played two matches more and have four points more), but these are silly odds. Worcester are going through a crisis, they lost a manager, now they have a couple of new ones (managers), they have three defeats and one draw (1:3 at home to 6th Nuneaton in Setanta Shield, 1:1 away at 16th Gainsborough, 0:4 at home to 6th Nuneaton again, this time in the more important league and, finally, 0:1 away at Guiseley from the league below in the FA Trophy) in their last four matches and Barrow are finally looking comfortable enough to take 'em at these odds. Barrow's temporary management team (they're doing great btw) just brought in young but experienced midfielder Scales who played for Northwich, Chester and Morecambe and winger Swarbrick from FC United, they've done a great job a few days ago beating 7th Burscough 4:1 at home, they had a great FA Cup run this season (they managed to beat Colwyn Bay, Fleetwood, then Farsley from the Conference National in the 4th qualifying round, and they were really good in the 1st round proper when they played against mighty Bournemouth it was 1:1 at home and narrow 2:3 defeat away at Bournemouth). They lost to Southport in the FA Trophy, but they also have two fantastic league wins in a row before 7th Burscough, they were even more fantastic at home against 5th Telford they won 4:0. (You can improvize the DRAW NO BET yourself, Expekt offers terrific 4.15 on away win, 4.00 or less elsewhere, and you can find a draw at 3.60 or at least 3.50 anywhere... 3.60 for both draw and away win at Stanleybet, 1.89 at Pinnacle for (+0.5), 1.90 at Betsafe and Expekt for X2...) FT 1:1 UNIBOND PREMIER Guiseley Fleetwood 2 (2.50 @Sportingbet) 2 units Fleetwood (currently 2nd) are definately the in-form team in the Unibond Premier right now and Guiseley are obviously falling down (currently 5th). Fleetwood have four wins in a row, they were great in the last round and new guys Wright and Watt seem like great signings. Guiseley, on the other hand, just lost their manager, he got fired after two recent league defeats. They did manage to beat Worcester in the FA Trophy last Saturday, but Worcester are in big problems. Nice odds, I have to try it with a couple of units... (2.65 at Stanleybet, 2.45 at Bwin, 2.40 at Bet-at-home, Gamebookers, PartyBets... 1.98 for DRAW NO BET or (0) at Pinnacle, sounds great...) FT 0:2 CONF NORTH Solihull Stalybridge 2 (2.50 @Skybet) 2 units Stalybridge brought in a couple of new players recently (for example strikers Dean from League Two outfit Bury and Meechan from Conference National outfit York), they were great at home vs Boston in the last league round (won 3:0) and I think they have much more chance here than bookies think. Solihull are playing awful lately, they are one of the worst home teams in the league, they have four defeats in a row, a lot of injury problems and they're bound to slip in the relegation zone (they're currently 19th). Stalybridge are 8th, they do seem as an on/off outfit, but they should be too strong here... (2.38 at StanJames and Blue Square, 2.20 at Stanleybet, 1.87 at Pinnacle for DRAW NO BET or (0) sounds terrific...) FT 0:4 |
