24.11.2007. +5.74 units
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FA TROPHY Eastleigh Weston-super-Mare 1 (1.85 @Sportingbet) 6 units Eastleigh had a real reinnasance recently but home defeat to Bromley shocked them for sure after that they only managed to share points away at Cambridge. But, they have a solid team, they're playing at home and I'm sure they want to get back on track as soon as possible. They had a nice FA Cup run too why not repeat it in the FA Trophy? Weston-super-Mare have four defeats in their last five league matches (their goal-difference in these five matches is 4:10, but they scored three at St Albans) - all of them were home defeats and one of them was to Eastleigh. It was 3:0 for the visitors and I expect a similar result here, for Eastleigh of course. Weston's only positive recunt result was an away win at poor St Albans, but that's another category. Btw, these two outfits played at Eastleigh also this season (back in September) it was 3:2 for Eastleigh and that was even before Baird took over. Eastleigh will miss a couple of injured players (the most important ones, like probably the best non-league striker Forbes, are fit), including their no1 goalkeeper Pullen due to his operation, but I think Eastleigh will manage to pull a strong, probably a handicap win even without him (youngster Kitteridge just joined from Reading and he'll probably do a good job it's Reading). Weston's manager wants (and needs) to srengthen the squad after some injuries (they will miss three injured players tomorrow) and leavings, but instead of that, they lost another two players a couple of days ago midfielder Harley to a Conference National (or Blue Square Premier, if you like) outfit Exeter and an attacking midfielder Holgate to Eastleigh (he will be cup-tied, but nevertheless, he won't play for the away team) a major blow for sure. Besided Holgate, Eastleigh just brought in a central defender Goodhind on loan from Ebbsfleet too. (1.83 at StanJames, 1.80 at Bet-at-home, Bet365, Blue Square, Gamebookers, PartyBets and Skybet, 1.77 currently at Pinnacle...) FT 4:2 FA TROPHY/UNIBOND DOUBLE: Wimbledon Northwood 1 @1.44 & Fleetwood - Ashton 1 @1.50 (2.15 @Gamebookers) 5 units Northwood are struggling in the Ryman North (currently 18th) and mighty Wimbledon are finally flying high in the league above, Ryman Premier (currently 3rd). Time spent on writing about difference in quality here could be spent in so many other ways... Northwood's latest league result is a 0:2 home defeat to 13th Aveley they did manage to beat Hornchurch in the FA Trophy 2nd qualifying round, but that was at home and against a side that's struggling in the Ryman Premier currently. Wimbledon are a different kind of story they trashed Ryman Premier league leaders Chelmsford 4:0 in the 2nd qualifying round of this competition and they're taking the FA Trophy very seriously. Fleetwood are currently the in-form team in the Unibond Premier and Ashton ar struggling they're currently 14th, but they have only four points more and three matches more than 19th Kendal (relegation zone). Fleetwood are one of the best home teams in this league (5-1-1, goal-difference 16:8) and Ashton are one of the worst away teams (1-4-2, 7:10). Fleetwood have four wins in a row (1:0 at home vs 15th Lincoln, 2:1 at home vs Radcliffe in the Challenge Trophy cup, 2:1 away at 20th North Ferriby, 7:3 at home vs Warrington in the League Cup) and they brought in two players in the last few days winger Watt from Southport and striker Wright from Kendal who scored in his first match for Fleetwood away at North Ferriby and than three more goals vs Warrington this midweek. Ashton brought in two players recently, but two important players also left the club. They did manage to share points away at mid-table Ossett (0:0), but in their last league match they lost 1:5 at home to 18th Leek. Bloody awful and you must know that Leek are really struggling with injuries lately. (2.15 also at Skybet and PartyBets, 2.10 at Bet365, 1.95 at Bwin...) FT 2:1 / 3:0 RYMAN PREMIER Staines Chelmsford 2 (1.83 @Skybet) 4 units I just saw the whole Staines Stockport match (FA Cup 1st round proper, 1:1 FT, Staines won after the penalties thanx to some amazing saves by their keeper Allaway) and took this bet after the first 90 minutes. Some of the Staines' players barely walked in the second half of regular time, managed to keep a clean sheet in extra-time (again thanx to Allaway) and now they face league leaders Chelmsford, only 40 hours after the end of this FA Cup thriller. Most of them even had to go to work today and if we add some hours spent sleep and celebration, I don't think they could recuperate for mighty Chelmsford who had a midweek off. I finally saw Staines strikers and wingers in a whole match and yes, they are quick and good (Nwokeji looks like a really good player), but they also could've condeded a lot of goals if Allaway didn't have a day from a fairytale. I think Stockport had about 30 shots on goal (half of it on target) and I don't think Alloway has the luck for having two magnificent matches in a row. If he had, he wouldn't be playing in the Ryman Premier after being sold to Leeds for 200 000 pounds five years ago, would he? I'm joking but I really think this is as close to a public bet as a non-league match could be the odds are dropping as hell (basically no more value if you can't bet at Stanleybet) and anything but a Chelmsford win would surprise me here, but it's only four units for me. If the Staines Stockport match was played on Monday, like it should've (it was postponed due to heavy rain), I wouldn't take this bet. But, after extra-time, penalties and an emotional win against a League 2 opponent (three leagues above Ryman Premier), I'm taking it. Staines' pitch is one of the best in the league and that can only help Chelmsford players who are all top-quality, at least for this level of football. The Staines Stockport FA Cup match was broadcasted live on Sky Sports and Sky even provided some means of draining the pitch. Chelmsford players are very good, fast and physical, they'll probably win the league this season and should win this six-pointer against a tired side that gave it's 120% in the 120 minutes plus penaltes against a League 2 outfit in the greatest Cup competition in the world. Seems logical to take this bet when I put it like this, right? (Terrific 2.25 for away win at Stanleybet, 1.75 or less elsewhere...) FT 2:2 UNIBOND PREMIER Matlock Marine 2 (2.63 @StanJames) 3 units Marine are one of the in-form teams in the Unibond Premier, unlike on/off Matlock outfit. The odds look great (value indeed) because Matlock will be missing no less than three strikers for this match (in-form Cropper who scored both goals last Saturday, five goals in last three matches, Barraclough who scored eight goals already this season and Hall who scored four goals Taylor will probably play, but he's not 100% fit and he scored the least goals of all the mentioned forwards this season) and two defenders are out injured too. It was 3:1 for the hosts at Marine two weeks ago and I don't think Matlock's revenge plan stands much chance at least not as much as the bookies think. After all, Matlock lost two of their three last home matches (0:1 to 9th Ossett and 1:2 to 3rd Gateshead in the FA Trophy) and a home win would be a shock result here if you ask me. After the defeat at Marine, Matlock lost away at 8th Eastwood in the League Cup and then finally managed to win a match, away at 15th Lincoln, but Lincoln are without a manager and currently sitting on the 15th place. Marine won there 2:0 also a couple of weeks ago. Last season, it was 2:1 for Marine at Matlock and I expect a similar result here. Mariners have some great away results this season they won at 2nd Fleetwood, 11th Ilkeston, 18th Leek and 15th Lincoln, shared points at bottom of the table Frickley (back in August though) and 12th Prescot, and lost only at league leaders Witton (back in August), 8th Eastwood (in September)and 4th Guiseley. (2.70 at Stanleybet, 2.63 also at Skybet, 2.60 at Gamebookers, Paddy Power and PartyBets, 2.55 at Sportingbet...Pinnacle offers incredible 2.10 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...) FT 2:3 RYMAN PREMIER Billericay Margate 1 (2.30 @Sportingbet) 3 units Both of these outfits are underperforming this season and currently have some serious injury problems Margate did have a turbulent summer that saw a lot of players leave the club, but Billericay were (and still are, they're second to bottom currently, but they have only seven points less and played four matches less than 6th Maidstone who were themselves struggling near the relegation zone a few weeks ago) serious play-off candidates. Billericay were great in the FA Cup 1st round proper against Swansea (lost the match in the end though) and after that played horrible away at third to bottom Ashford, but they had no less than seven players out missing or suspended. Some of them are coming back into the team now and Billericay are playing at home. Billericay's last home match was a 4:0 win against Maidstone. Margate really aren't the best away team (they won only one of their eight away matches) and they were equally lousy last Saturday and they were playing at home, against one of the worst visiting teams in the league Maidstone (lost 3:4). They didn't even manage to win at poor Folkestone and equally poor Heybridge a month ago so I can't see them taking the points here. Billericay won their home matches against Margate last season and the season before that. Very nice odds. (Pinnacle offers 1.76 for (0) or DRAW NO BET sounds great... Stanleybet, StanJames, Paddy Power and Bet365 all offer 2.25 for a home win, 2.20 elsewhere...) FT 0:1 FA TROPHY Vauxhall Hyde 2 (2.10 @Gamebookers) 3 units Vauxhall (currently 16th) aren't very good at home (3-3-3, goal-difference 16:20) and they have the worst goal-difference in Conference North (24:44 in 17 matches, they conceded most goals in the league by far). If we look at their last five league matches, they have three defeats (1:3 at home vs 5th Telford, 1:5 at 10th Boston, 2:3 at 4th Southport), one draw (1:1 at home vs poor Worcester who are really struggling lately) and one win (3:2 at home vs 19th Solihull). Hyde (currently 2nd) is the best away team in the league (6-1-3, goal-difference 23:10) and they scored most goals in the league by far 42 in 18 matches. The start of November wasn't good for Hyde they lost 0:1 at 6th Nuneaton and after that, they also lost to 1:3 at home to 4th Southport. That obviously shocked them, but also mobilized them after that, they picked up six points in just three days (4:1 at improved 20th Hucknall, 3:0 at home vs 19th Solihull). They recently welcomed back a couple of injured players and Simm is on fire, scoring three goals in their last two matches. And yes, Seddon and Tipton are both finally fit too. Pinnacle's odds for OVER 2.5 are 1.92 at this moment and that is probably the value bet of the day, but we agreed not to include Pinnacle odds in official previews and statistics and only Pinnacle offers OVER/UNDER option for this match. Hyde's win should happen here too though. These two outfits already played a league match this season it was 6:3 (!) for the home team at Hyde. (2.10 also at Bet-at-home, Bet365, PartyBets and Skybet... 1.96 for (-0.25) at Pinnacle, sounds very nice...) FT 1:0 |
