17.11.2007. +20.85 units
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CONFERENCE SOUTH Dorchester Hampton & Richmond 2 (2.25 @Coral) 7 units Dorchester (currently 19th) are really struggling at the moment, there were some comings and goings lately, didn't help really. These two outfits played a match this Tuesday also, in the Setanta Shield Cup, and Hampton won 5:2 at home. But, Dorchester are even worse at home (this season 1-2-5, last season 6-2-12) than away so this is monster value indeed. Dorchester won their last league match two months ago and after that, they have two draws (at home vs fellow strugglers Bognor Regis and Welling) and six defeats. Terrible form. Hampton & Richmond are doing fine in fact, better than fine. They're currently 5th and that means they're in the play-off zone, and they are traditionally strong away from home (their pitch isn't in the best shape), not to mention they have the same squad as last season (when they were the champions of Ryman Premier) so they all know each other. They lost their last league match two months ago and after that they have two draws (both at home, vs Maidenhead and Bishop's Stortford) and three wins two of them away from home (2:1 at Basingstoke and 3:0 at Havant their manager even rested five players for that match). Hampton's manager Devonshire did a great job and after losing 0:3 in the FA Cup 1st qualifying round (at home vs League 2 outfit Dagenham & Redbridge, so the defeat was kinda expected, but they apparently played very well for most of the match and they missed their best scorer Yaku who is now back in the team), I think they have what it takes to quickly bounce back and return to their winning ways. In fact, they already bounced back, in the Setanta Shield, against the very same Dorchester and I don't think Dorchester's revenge plan stands much chance here. Dorchester will miss their standard defenders Brown and Simpson due to suspensions and their fans spent most of the Tuesday's match calling for the resignation of their manager. Bet of the day for sure, when it comes to value. (2.27 at Betfair currently, 2.25 also at Blue Square and Skybet, 2.20 at Bwin and Betway, only 2.10 at Stanleybet. Pinnacle offers incredible 2.06 for (-0.25)...) FT 0:1 RYMAN PREMIER Hastings Wimbledon 2 (2.10 @Bwin) 6 units Great odds here Wimbledon finally started scoring regularly and they would've got all three points at Tonbridge (that would've been their 5th win in a row) if they had some luck with goalkeepers. No1 keeper Little got injured in the match before, against Hornchurch (Wimbledon managed to win that match 1:0) and after that, Wimbledon brought in Fulham's keeper Brooks-Meade on a month's loan but he also got injured and had to leave the pitch in 63th minute. Tonbridge managed to score an equaliser after reserve keeper Symon came on and Wimbledon had to be content with a point after all. Now Wimbledon brought in another keeper on-loan, Knowles from Conference National outfit Grays. Wimbledon's latest permanent signing is high-flying striker Jon Main who came from Tonbridge, he was Wimbledon's manager's long-time target. I see both De Bolla and Main on the scoring sheet tomorrow. Hastings have four defeats in a row, they lost their central defender and long-time captain Ray recently and now they face mighty Wimbledon. One of these four defeats was a home defeat to poor Leyton last Saturday. Hastings players had three shots on target and lost the match 0:1 and that's Leyton, people. They will miss a couple of injured players too. Wimbledon could play with a local junkie between the sticks and they'd still have better chances than 2.10. (2.10 also at Bet-at-home, Bet365, Gamebookers and Skybet. 2.00 at Stanleybet. Pinnacle offers terrific 1.84 for (-0.25)...) FT 1:3 CONFERENCE SOUTH Weston-super-Mare Lewes 2 (2.25 @StanJames) 5 units Very nice odds, I was expecting 2.00 max. Weston are currently 10th but I'm sure they'll end this season much nearer the relegation zone. They had a nice run against relegation candidates but now they have three home defeats in a row and their goal-difference in these three matches is 0:8. I really think Lewes will prove to be a much better team here. Weston are out of both FA Cup and Setanta Shield Cup and their supporters don't give 'em much chance here. Neither do I. Lewes are currently 2nd and if Eastbourne loses or draws against Thurrock and they manage to win at Weston, they'll be league leaders again. 0:3 defeat at Eastleigh shocked them, sure, after that they only managed to share points at home vs Maidenhead, yes, but after that they bounced back in style they managed to beat Conference National outfit Grays in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round and then they trashed Sutton 4:0 in the league. League 2 outfit Mansfield did manage to beat them comfortably in the FA Cup 1st round proper, but after that Lewes bounced back one more time, only two days after the FA Cup defeat they won 3:2 at Havant & Waterloovile in the Setanta Shield. (Bwin also offers 2.25, Bet-at-home, Betway, Blue Square, Expekt, Gamebookers, Paddy Power all offer 2.20, Stanleybet offers 2.10 and Pinnacle offers terrific 1.76 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...) FT 1:2 CONFERENCE SOUTH Bromley Newport OVER 3.5 (3.25 @Blue Square) 5 units I don't have to say much about this bet really. Bromley (currently 8th) has eight league matches in a row that produced at least four goals (scored 20 and conceded 18 in those eight matches) and when you take a look at their match highlights, it's obvious that we again have a nice value bet here. After a couple of awful results, they bounced back with a fantastic 4:1 win away at high-flying Eastleigh and this time they face another play-off candidates, Newport (currently 4th). They brought in a couple of new players recently midfielder I'Anson and winger Davis. They did concede only one goal vs Eastleigh, but Eastleigh simply had a terrible day Bromley's defense still seems really shaky and they will probably concede a couple of goals here. Newport started the season as an UNDER team, but after the first couple of rounds, started to score more and to concede a bit more too. Now they have five league matches in a row that produced at least four goals they scored 13 and conceded 10 goals in those five matches. All in all, I'll be glad to risk another five units here. (Stanleybet offers 2.42 for OVER 3.5, 2.74 for 4-6 GOALS option and 20.8 for 7+GOALS option. You know what to do. Pinnacle offers 1.95 for OVER 2.75 sounds great...) FT 2:2 CONFERENCE NORTH Barrow Telford 2 (2.10 @Coral) 5 units I thought about this bet for quite a long time, thought and thought, and then I saw Telford Kettering match highlights (Telford lost 0:1, it was their only defeat in last five matches) and definately decided to take it. Telford's league results have been great lately (they're currenlty 3rd) and it appears they can lose only to the teams that are above them on the league table (Kettering, Harrogate, Hyde). Telford were a better team even against mighty Kettering, but the ball just wouldn't go into the goal and when it did, the referee called for a foul that didn't exist I saw the match highlights, this isn't some Telford fan talking. Telford brought in another player these days scorer Husbands on loan from League 2 outfit Macclesfield. Husbands himself could make a difference in this match, but Telford have a couple of other players who know how to play football and they all know each other very good they're playing together for quite some time. Barrow just lost their manager, they're currently 20th and a draw would be a shocking result here, let alone a home win. I really thought they could snatch three points vs bottom of the table Hinckley two weeks ago (didn't bet on it in the end because of some suspensions), they were playing at home and all, but no, they lost 0:1. I think they may put up a good fight, but Telford's quality should prove crucial in any case. (2.05 at Bwin and Betway, 2.00 at StanJames, Gamebookers and Bet-at-home... Pinnacle offers 1.80 for (-0.25), sounds nice... Only 1.90 at Stanleybet...) FT 4:0 UNIBOND PREMIER Ilkeston Gateshead 2 (2.00 @StanJames) 5 units Well, it seems like everyone agrees with this 2.00 (you can find these odds at every single bookie except Bet-at-home who decided to go with 1.95) except me. IMO, max odds for away win should be 1.80 so I simply have to take another 5 units bet. Why this most definately can't be a 2.00? Because Ilkeston just lost their best scorer Ross who scored five goals in his last four matches for Ilkeston and 11 goals all together this season, including a winner at Gateshead. Yes, these two outfits played a match already this season, at Gateshead, and it was a shocking 2:1 win for the guests from Ilkeston, but that can just add to the Gateshead's players' motivation in this match. After all, Ilkeston are still one of the worst home teams in the league (2-2-5) and Gateshead are promotion candidates (currently 2nd). Gateshead have one defeat, one draw and seven wins in the last 30 days and after last Saturday's home defeat to Worksop (it was only their 3rd defeat in 32 games since Bogie took over as manager), I'm sure they want to get back on track. They were solid at home vs Newcastle Blue Star in the League Cup this Wednesday (won 2:0, hit the post twice) and I think Ilkeston will miss Ross much more than they think. (You can find these 2.00 odds everywhere, including Stanleybet... Pinnacle offers terrific 1.92 for (-0.25)...) FT 2:0 CONFERENCE SOUTH Basingstoke St Albans 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit Braintree Bognor Regis 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit Hayes & Yeading Sutton 2 /DRAW NO BET (3.20 @Betway) 1 unit I'm pretty sure that at least one of these away teams will be getting all three points tomorrow and, honestly, I can't imagine all of the home teams winning. I don't think it's necessary for me to write essays about every team, so I'll keep it short. Basingstoke have two defeats in a row and St Albans are dying for a win. They proved that they can be quite a team on their day when they snatched all three points at Bishop's Stortford and Bromley and I think they have a good enough chance here. Braintree have four wins in a row, but it's all against relegation candidates and they're bound to lose soon. Bognor Regis started to play some football finally, they were great against Hayes and I think they could be very dangerous here and maybe even win, yes. Hayes & Yeading are terrible at the moment and this is the best possible chance for poor Sutton to win a match finally. Sutton have nine defeats in a row, but they surely know that if they manage to stop Palmer, a win is not mission imposible here. After all, Hayes also have two handicap defeats in a row and they're nothing to be afraid of. You can see all the odds here in case you want to improvize DRAW NO BETs yourself: http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391406/m1/d0/ http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391408/m1/d0/ http://www.oddsoddsodds.com/goto/odds/s1/g391414/m1/d0/ FT 3:1 / 3:2 / 3:3 |
