10.11.2007. +13.85 units
|
FA CUP (-0.75) Team Bath Chasetown 1 (2.00 @Bet365) 6 units I wrote about Team Bath a lot lately every time I placed a bet on them, they won, and now I again see some value in these odds. After all, Team Bath have a historical chance here they were the first university outfit to reach FA Cup 1st round proper in 2002 and now they have a massive chance for a place in the FA Cup 2nd round proper and possibly a match against some of the legendary english clubs from the highest leagues. Team Bath have seven wins in a row and knowing they're a strong outfit that already kicked Conference South outfit Weston out of the FA Cup, I can only hope for no surprises and a strong home win. Chasetown are having a memorable season in the league below Team Bath's Southern Premier they also kicked out a Conference South outfit out of the FA Cup already, but it was only Cambridge City who are really struggling recently. Chasetown are playing really good, but the quantity of matches is obviously starting to be a problem they lost at Radcliffe Borough in the FA Trophy this Tuesday and Radcliffe are currently bottom of the table in the Unibond North (Chasetown are 4th in the Southern Midlands it's the the same level of english football, 8th leagues). So yeah, both of these teams are giant-killers in the FA Cup this season but Team Bath is a much more proffesional, responsible and stronger outfit and Chasetown had a midweek match that left them frustrated and injury-worried. A nice value bet. (Okay, it's the FA Cup 1st round so you can find this match everywhere. Bet365 offers2.00 for (-0.75) which means we earn 3 units in case of a normal Team Bath win and 6 units in case of a handicap win. Pinnacle and 10Bet are even better and offer 2.02 and 2.01 for (-0.75) and you can also find 1.96 on Betfair for this option. Normal win looks best at Bwin 1.75. You can find 1.75 on Betfair too and Expekt, Primebet and Stanleybet all offer 1.70 on a normal home win...) FT 0:2 CONFERENCE SOUTH Eastleigh Bromley OVER 3.5 (3.25 @Betway) 6 units Looking at their recent results, incredible value here. I was thinking about staking even more units here, but after the FA Trophy debacle (Marine concedes a goal in 95th minute and instead of being +2.2 units up we're -11.3 units down. Heartbreaking, I tell you), I'd like to keep mid-profile on this one. I didn't just take a look at their recent results, I watched detailed, recent match highlights both Eastleigh's and Bromley's. Both of these teams play attacking, open football with lots of chances, agressive counter-attacks and major defensive mistakes. Really, this bet will be lost only if both goalkeepers play their matches of the season, at the same time. Since Baird took over, Eastleigh played only two UNDER 3.5 matches. 2:2, 2:3, 5:0, 3:0 (home win vs title candidates Lewes), 3:0 (away win at Weston), 3:3 (at home against Conference National high-flyers Forest Green), 1:4 (in the away replay), 4:2 (away win at Hayes). If they managed to score three goals at home against Lewes and Forest Green, then they surely can score at least three or four against Bromley too. After Baird took over, Forbes scored at least once in every match he played in. Ten goals in seven matches very impressive. Bromley played seven OVER 3.5 league matches in a row. They scored 16 and condeded 17 goals in those seven matches. 21st St Albans beat them 4:3 (and Bromley were playing at home) two weeks ago and 17th Welling (both relegation candidates) beat them 3:1 last Saturday. The last time we placed a bet on OVER 3.5 in Bromley's match, we had a winning bet after the first ten minutes I wouldn't be surprised with the similar HT result this time too. Bromley's fans are switching the blame for their recent results from centre-backs to the keeper and back to centre-backs. A solid team would try to play more careful, especially in the defense, but this is the non-league world and I saw the match highlights I don't think Bromley could keep a clean sheet with those defenders they currently have against anybody, and this time they're playing against high-flying goal-machine outfit. Bromley will even play without their standard defender Corneille due to suspension I like that bit very much. Eastleigh also have some injury worries, but their best scorer Forbes is fit. Bad luck, please get out of the way. (2.88 at Blue Square, only 2.42 at Stanleybet, but I advise everybody who can place a bet at Stanleybet to risk a single unit on a 7+ goals option too, just like I did. The odds are 20.8, which means you gain almost 20 units if seven goals are scored...) FT 1:4 RYMAN DOUBLE: Wimbledon Hornchurch 1 @1.65 & Chelmsford Ashford 1 @1.40 (2.31 @Sportingbet) 4 units Wimbledon are currently riding high after trying out almost half a dozen strikers this season, now it seems they finally have the winning team capable for a promotion to the Conference South at the end of the season. Hornchurch dissappointed all the people who thought they could be serious play-off candidates this season and they're struggling lately, both with results and injuries. Chelmsford are almost always a great bet especially when they're playing at home, against relegation candidates, after a shock-defeat at Wimbledon in the FA Trophy. Ryman Premier is the league I'm following more than the other 7th leagues and the league I have the best results in and it's really a shame that neither online bookies nor Stanleybet offer handicaps and OVERs/UNDERs for these leagues anymore it would be a goldmine. But, we can do it like this too Wimbledon + Chelmsford for 2.31? 4 units, any time. After all, Hornchurch and Ashford will both miss a couple of important players due to suspensions and injuries so I really think this bet should land nicely. (2.16 at Bwin and Stanleybet, 2.15 at Skybet and Bet365...) FT 1:0 / 4:0 CONFERENCE SOUTH AD-HOC DRAW-NO-BET: Bognor Regis Hayes & Yeading 1 (2.50 @Blue Square) 3 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 1 unit Bognor will undoubtebly look for three points here to get out of the dangerous zone. I think they have much more chance here than the bookies suggest. Bognor have a new manager, they are unbeaten in the last four league matches and their best striker Nightingale scored three goals in their last three league matches. Hayes are their direct rivals, also relegation candidates and if you took a look at their match highlights, you know that they're the perfect opportunity for Bognor Regis to get back on track. I'm glad to see that Bognor guys also know a thing or two about their opponents. Hayes' scorer Palmer is labelled as 'danger-man' on the Bognor web-site and they're right. If they manage to keep an eye on him, this will be a winning bet. Eastleigh had a 4:0 lead at Hayes last Saturday and Palmer managed to score twice before the final whistle to make it 2:4 so yeah, he is the danger-man and requires a special treatment. Bognor took a valuable point away at mighty Newport and then away at Dorchester, they managed to beat 14th Cambridge at home (2:0) and also took a point away at St Albans (who also have a new manager and want to get back on track Bognor were unfortunate not scoring a winner) last Saturday. Hayes should be an easier opponent, because they're currently 16th, so still not in danger = less pressure on the players. And yes, Bognor are playing at home that should make a difference too. I wrote a lot about Hayes & Yeading so I won't do it again they lost 2:4 at home to Eastleigh last Saturday (before that, struggling Maidenhead beat them in the FA Cup) and it became even more obvious that Palmer is half of their team, but even if he scores, I'm sure the defense will do their thing to throw away at least two points. A draw is possible here so I like this DRAW NO BET option most. Last season, Bognor were great at home vs both Hayes and Yeading (5:1 and 3:1). (1.70 at Betway for the official DRAW-NO-NET, but I like this improvised one much more... Bwin, Gamebookers, Paddy Power, Primebet and Sportingbet all offer 2.40 for a home win. Skybet and Bet365 also offer 3.60 for a draw. Stanleybet offers terrific 2.55 for a home win and, of course, Pinnacle is again the best option by far they offer 1.96 for (0) or DRAW NO BET...) FT 3:0 SOUTHERN PREMIER AD-HOC DRAW NO BET: Chippenham Hemel Hempstead 1 (2.38 @StanJames) 3 units & X (3.60 @StanJames) 1 unit Chippenham are currently 5th and Hemel are 1st in the Southern Premier but Hemel played two matches more than Chippenham and they have only three points more. Hemel Hempstead will be without three important players due to their suspensions (midfielder Cracknell, Dennison and standard defender Bowden-Hasse) and that alone is a good enough reason for taking this bet at these odds. But, there are other reasons too. Chippenham are yet to lose a home match (3-2-0). They took another three points this Tuesday, away at play-off candidates Rugby (currently 7th) and before that they won comfortably at home vs 13th Tiverton (5:1), won four Cup matches and lost only to Ryman play-off candidates Horsham in the FA Cup 4th qualifying round that's their only home defeat this season and that wasn't even the league which is a priority for Chippenham this season. In the FA Trophy, they managed to beat both Merthyr (3:0) and Heybridge (3:2). Chippenham's first-choice goalkeeper is out with a hip injury, but they managed to sign Bittner from Salisbury (Conference National) on a month loan and he did great at Rugby and managed to keep a clean sheet. That's not easy in these leagues. Hemel Hempstead are playing great away from home (5-2-1) but they will without a doubt be more than satisfied with a draw here. They have two league defeats in a row (at home to 9th Clevedon and away at 3rd Team Bath) and I don't think they'll be top of the table for much longer. Both King's Lynn and Team Bath have stronger squads and the biggest chances for the title this season. After the Clevedon defeat, they did manage to pull off a revenge (2:1), at home in the less important FA Trophy, but before those two defeats Hemel weren't very comfortable away from home. They did manage to win at surprisingly 4th Brackley but only shared points at 8th Bedford and 20th Gloucester. Last year, both matches ended with a draw it was 2:2 at Chippenham and 0:0 at Hemel. This time, Hemel are out of form (and Chippenham are the in-form team, playing at home) and without a couple of important players. Small loss (-0.40) in case of a draw here... (2.25 at Bet365, Skybet and Stanleybet for a home win, 3.60 for a draw also at Skybet...) FT 1:2 CONFERENCE NORTH Hucknall Solihull Moors 1 (2.25 @StanJames) 2 units Two strugglers and relegation candidates here. Hucknall are currently 22nd, bottom of the table and Solihull Moors are 17th (three points more), but recent results are showing it all. Hucknall brought in a couple of new players (new no1 goalkeeper Reid, midfielder Manship, defenderd Macpherson and Sucharewycz, winger Graves, and strikers Howells and Ricketts came before them, last month) and they have two wins in a row. They beat Worcester 5:0 at home and Stalybridge 3:0 away. Impressive, and the new keeper is at his best two clean sheets in a row look great knowing that they only managed to keep clean sheet once before that... Solihull managed to share points at home vs Workington, but it's going to be much tougher this time. They're away from home and they'll be without Ayres due to suspension. Before Workington, they lost two home matches to Alfreton (0:3) and Boston (1:3). Away from home, they have one win (back in August, away at another strugglers from Hinckley), two draws (at currently very poor Worcester in September and at another fellow strugglers Leigh RMI in October) and three defeats they scored only four goals in those six matches. Very nice odds lured me but it's just a little two units bet... (2.30 at Stanleybet, 2.25 also at Sportingbet, 2.20 at Bet-at-home, Blue Square, Gamebookers and PartyBets...) FT 2:2 CONF NORTH DOUBLE: Alfreton Leigh RMI 1 @1.65 & Boston Vauxhall 1 @1.70 (2.805 @Betway) 2 units In-form play-off candidates at home, struggling out-of-form outfits away. Alfreton brought in a couple of great players recently, they have three wins in a row (two of them away from home) and shouldn't have much problem against Leigh RMI who lost a couple of important players lately and picked up a sole point out of their last three matches. It was 1:0 for Alfreton last season and I expect a similar result this time. Alfreton manager has a full squad to chose from Glass is back from suspension and everyone is fit. They even managed to beat league leaders Harrogate away from home last Saturday. Leigh RMI have one draw (at Vauxhall) and four defeats in their last five away league matches. Boston are yet to lose a home match this season, they picked up five points in their last three matches, but it was all away matches. After an FA Cup defeat, I'm sure they want to get back on track. Vauxhall only managed to share points in the last round at home vs struggling Worcester and before that they lost to Telford, also at home. They will also be without two suspended players Garrity and Heler. A nice little bet... (2.78 at StanJames and Stanleybet, 2.72 at Bet-at-home, Bwin, Gamebookers, PartyBets, Primebet, Sportingbet...) FT 1:0 / 5:1 |
