27.10.2007. +4.89 units
|
CONFERENCE SOUTH Fisher Newport 2 /DRAW NO BET (2.10 @Betway) 5 units Fisher (currently 11th) were awful at home vs Maidenhead (0:1 defeat) last Saturday and a bit better away at Hayes & Yeading (1:2 defeat) this Tuesday (played good for an hour, but then simply stopped), but I think the physical Newport outfit will have too much for them in this match and draw is IMO the worst thing that can happen to Newport. Fisher have some injury worries (their best scorer Goulding is still not 100% fit) and they're out of form lately after having a great start. They haven't won at home since August 18th and Margate, mid-table team from Ryman Premier, league below, kicked them out of the FA Cup (3:4, Fisher were again playing at home) a month ago (2nd qualifying round). In the last two months, they won only away at strugglers St Albans (20th), Braintree (16th) and Bognor Regis (21st). Newport are having a mini-crisis too but they're still comfortable in the play-off zone (currently 5th) and Fisher should be the perfect opponent for them to get back on track. The mini-crisis are in fact their three recent results all three at home. They shared points with struggling Bognor Regis and Bath City managed to beat them both in the FA Cup and in the league (1:2 and 2:3). But, Bath's manager knows all about Newport because he's been a player and a manager there for quite a time and they conceded a late penalty. They are a strong team that plays better away than at home they won their last three away matches (at 7th Eastleigh, at 12th Basingstoke in the FA Trophy 2nd qualifying round and at 18th Maidenhead). (Betway also offers the best online odds for a straight away win 2.55. Stanleybet offers 2.60 1.47 for X2. Bet365, Bwin, Expekt, Paddy Power and Sportingbet all offer 2.40 for a straight away win and Expekt has the best online X2 odds 1.45...) FT 1:3 FA CUP DOUBLE: Histon Bamber Bridge 1 @1.30 & Weymouth Hitchin Town 1 @1.40 (1.82 @Sportingbet) 5 units Histon and Weymouth both doing fine in the Blue Square Premier, shouldn't have much problem against lower league opponents. Bamber Bridge are playing good in the Unibond North (they did lose two out of their last three league matches though) but that's three leagues below and Hitchin are in the relegation zone down in Southern Premier (two leagues below) and aren't good away from home. (1.80 at Skybet, StanJames and William Hill...) FT 4:1 / 1:1 UNIBOND PREMIER DOUBLE: Guiseley North Ferriby @1.36 & Whitby Witton X2 @1.25 (1.70 @Paddy Power) 5 units Guiseley can't wait for the return to some league action. They're playing great at home (4-1-0) and they should have far too much for struggling North Ferriby. Witton lost a league match only on the opening day of the season and Whitby players would be more than happy with a draw. This should be a nice little bet, but I'd probably go with the Guiseley handicap win instead of this double if I could find that option anywhere... (Only 1.60 for this double at Bet-at-home, Gamebookers and PartyBets, but Stanleybet offers magnificent 1.84...) FT 2:1 / 1:6 RYMAN PREMIER Ramsgate Chelmsford 2 (2.25 @Bwin) 4 units & Ramsgate Chelmsford X (3.50 @StanJames) 1 unit When there's no DRAW NO BET option available in the whole world, we can always improvise one. We'll lose one and a half unit if this match ends with a draw (or gain 4 units profit if Chlemsford wins) but I don't think Ramsgate can do much against high-flying Chelmsford who are getting better and better away from home. Chelmsford are the biggest title candidates in the Ryman Premier and their players know how to show that on the pitch. Just look at their recent results 2:1 at home vs Harlow, 2:0 away at Southern Premier high-flyers Hemel Hempstead in the FA Cup, 3:2 away at Bury in the League Cup, 3:0 away at Hastings, 2:1 away at Leyton, 0:1 the only defeat at Conference South outfit Hayes & Yeading in the FA Cup, 5:1 at home vs Hendon and they were the league leaders at the time and, finally, last Saturday, 2:1 at Boreham Wood in the FA Trophy. Fantastic. Ramsgate had a terrible month they lost all of their matches (0:1 at home vs Southern Premier strugglers Corby in the FA Cup, 0:1 at home vs Staines in the league, 1:3 away at Harrow in the league and, finally, 2:3 at home vs Horsham in the FA Trophy last Saturday) and now they'll be without important utility player Minshull due to suspension. Chelmsford will miss Duncan but they have a much bigger squad than Ramsgate... (Stanleybet and Bet365 also offer 2.25 for away win. 3.50 for a draw can be found anywhere...) FT 2:0 FA CUP Hornchurch Team Bath 2 (2.63 @Skybet) 3 units & Hornchurch Team Bath X (3.60 @William Hill) 1 unit Well, if I can't find DRAW NO BET options for the FA Cup and for the 7th leagues (and this time they'd be perfect for half of today's bets) and if you don't want me to put out Pinnacle odds, there's nothing I can do but improvize these DRAW NO BETs. In case of a draw, we'll lose half a unit and if Team Bath wins we gain almost 4 units. Very nice odds really, 'cause Team Bath are playing great football recently. They won their last three league matches (2:1 at Cheshunt, 2:0 at home vs Bedford, 2:1 at Corby), they won their three FA Cup matches (2:0 at home vs Bodmin, 8:1 away at Moneyfields, 1:0 vs Conference South outfit Weston-super-Mare) and they also won their FA Trophy match (1:0 at home vs Taunton) it's a fantastic run and Hornchurch (mid-table Ryman Premier team) don't look to me like the team that could stop them. They were struggling in the FA Cup 3rd qualifying round already it was 0:0 at home vs Dartford (from league below), but then Hornchurch managed to win the replay away from home. (Unibet offers 2.60 and TopSportWetten offers 2.55 for an away win, PartyBets offers 3.50 for the draw...) FT 0:1 UNIBOND PREMIER Lincoln Marine 2 (2.50 @Skybet) 3 units & Lincoln Marine X (3.60 @Skybet) 1 unit Marine trashed Lincoln 5:0 last Saturday in the FA Trophy Mariners were playing home and I don't think Lincoln's revenge plan stands much chance. Lincoln are terrible at home they won only on the opening day of the season, in mid August. They have 0:8 goal-difference in the last two matches so they're really not the in-form team right now. Mariners, on the other hand, play better and better they had five wins in a row before drawing at Prescot Cables. But after that came this 5:0 win in the FA Trophy their most dangerous striker Cumiskey scored a hat-trick in that match and I wouldn't be surprised if Lincoln players end up beating Cumiskey on the pitch and getting a card or too for it. Cumiskey is, btw, Unibond Premier league's leading scorer and if someone will make a difference in this match, it's probably going to be him. Marine won their three previous encounters 4:1 at home and 2:1 away last season and now 5:0 in the FA Trophy. If Marine win we gain 3 and a half units and if the match ends with a draw, we lose less than half a unit... (Stanleybet, Bet365, Paddy Power and Primebet all offer the same odds 2.50. StanJames also offers 3.60 for the draw...) FT 0:2 FA CUP DOUBLE: Southport Northwich 1 @1.83 & Havant Leighton 1 @1.53 (2.7999 @Skybet) 2 units Southport are doing fine in the Conference North and Northwich are struggling at the bottom of the Blue Square Premier. Havant should have more than enough for Leighton and in this case bookies have fair odds so I'll have a double and won't feel too bad if I lose 2 units. But gaining almost 4 units if Southport and Havant continue with their fine home form (which they should) sounds great. (2.77 at Unibet and PartyBets...) FT 1:3 / 3:0 FA CUP Eastleigh Forest Green 1 (4.33 @Coral) 2 units & Eastleigh Forest Green X (3.50 @Gamebookers) 1 unit I'll consider this as one bet too, just like in the Ramsgate-Chelmsford case, but even a draw brings us some profit here and we lose only if Forest Green manage to win and IMO odds on away win should be a lot bigger than 1.95 (average online odds). Forest Green are indeed play-off candidates in the Conference National (or the Blue Square Premier) but that means that they're probably a bit more focused on the league at this moment. Btw, they weren't that good in their least league match they were playing at home to struggling Farsley and only shared points. Eastleigh are flying high in Conference South after Baird took over and their recent results have been fantastic (they beat Lewes 3:0 when they were still league leaders and they have goal-difference 11:0 in last three matches). Monster value, should be a cracking match... (Coral offers the best HW odds by far Bet-at-Home, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Unibet and William Hill all offer 3.30... Digibet and PartyBets both offer 3.50 for a draw too...) FT 3:3 |
