13.10.2007.
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Havant & Waterloovile Fleet 1 (1.62 @Skybet) 8 units Okay, we're in the FA Cup 3rd qualifying round. Surprises are bound to happen, but I don't think this is the match that will surprise us. Fleet are currently the leaders of Southern One (South & West) league (two leagues below Conference South) and they're doing great there (6-1-0), but I don't think they can do much away at mighty Havant. Havant are promotion candidates in the Conference South they have a new manager, they managed to beat very strong Bath City outfit in their last league home match and with the right attitude, this will be a strong home win. Havant are traditionally very strong at home (and, btw, had a very nice FA Cup run last season too) this season they have 4-1-1. At home, they shared points with Braintree back in the nervous first round and lost only to league leaders Lewes. Fleet played only two away league matches this season (won both), but they're no longer unbeatable this season they've lost 2:4 away at league rivals Oxford City (currently 8th) in the League Cup. They did manage to beat Southern Premier mid-table outfit Mangotsfield in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round (their biggest FA Cup success ever) but this is another story. The gap between Conference South and BG Southern One is huge... 8 units, for the first time this month. (Bwin offers 1.55...) FT 2:1 Leek Witton 2 (1.60 @ Bwin) 6 units Leek have 4 league defeats in a row and 4 home defeats in a row (if we include an FA Cup home defeat to league rivals Buxton) infront of their fans, they only managed to share points with 14th Ashton and 19th North Ferriby, back in August. They're the worst home team in the league with 0-2-3 (16th Prescot Cables, 15th Buxton and 6th Marine all managed to beat them) and goal-difference 3:10. Leek are currently 20th only Frickley are below them on the table. League leaders Witton were without a match last Saturday and they surely missed the old game, because they were unstopable at home against 16th Prescot Cables a couple of days ago (6:1 for Witton, it was a sweet revenge for the FA Cup defeat the odds were terribly low but these odds are better and I see some value here). Their September was great they picked up 16 points out of 18, their shared points only at play-off candidates Ossett (currently 9th). Huge difference in quality here, Witton have 4-1-1 away from home (their only away defeat happened in the first round, back in August, at 8th Lincoln), they had no problem at 12th Kendal, 15th Buxton, 11th Ilkeston, 14th Ashton. Witton will reamin top of the table even if they lose, so no pressure. But, no shocks and no surprises, please. Leek will also be without their two standard defenders, Johnson and Thomas, due to suspensions, Talbot recently retired from football and they're missing a couple of injured players too. Wanna see all the goals Witton scored against Prescot Cables? Didn't think so. Here they are: http://www.wittonalbionfc.com/othervideos.php?video=wit%20v%20prest%20goals.wmv&fixture_id=63 (Stanleybet offers 1.70 very nice. Sportingbet offers the same odds as Bwin 1.60. Paddy Power and Skybet offer 1.57...) FT 2:2 Marine North Ferriby 1 (1.67 @StanJames) 6 units Promotion candidates Marine (currently 6th) shouldn't have much problem against a poor North Ferriby outfit. Marine's home form wasn't brilliant so far (3-0-3), but North Ferriby are much worse when playing away (0-4-2). After an awful start of the season, Marine have finally started playing some football and now have four league wins in a row (3:2 at home against 17th Whitby, 4:1 at home against 12th Kendal, 4:2 away at 11th Ilkestone and, finally, 4:0 away at 20th Leek this Saturday) and have recently brought in a couple of new players (scorer Tuck, winger Wynne and experienced offensive midfielder Whittaker who played for a lot of Conference clubs). North Ferriby (currently 19th, in the relegation zone) had a little reinessance when new manager arrived at the club last month (they were playing against much weaker teams though they won at home against 10th Hednesford, that was their first match under the new manager, then they shared points away at fellow strugglers, 18th Worksop, and then won at home against the worst team in the league, 21st Frickley), but now they again have two league defeats in a row (1:3 away at 13th Stamford and 0:1 at home against 8th Lincoln) and not much to look forward to in this match. Their goal-difference this season is 14:27. Away from home, they shared points with 21st (bottom of the table) Frickley, 20th Leek, 9th Ossett and 18th Worksop, and lost at 7th Matlock and 13th Stamford. Their second best scorer this season, Hayward, left the club a week ago. Marine won all of their previous encounters played on their own pitch. Let's just look at the North Ferriby's fans' forum and that's it: ''... Can't remember Lincoln keeper having a serious save to make. Bradshaw running himself ragged again - he can't be expected to chase long balls onto the wing and score as well. Hotte as usual lots of huff and puff but no end result. Agree with Caspar - two subs at least should have been brought on to change things up front. Its the old story - quite a bit of promise but no real threat and not much sign of goals...'' ''... They need to convert the improvement in play into chances and goals and to do that they are still short of a creative midfield player who can keep the ball and a front man to play with Bradshaw. Like others on this site I can't see what the return of Hotte will bring to the team - he was willing enough last night but he's just not up to this standard of football and looks terrified if he finds himself in a scoring position. Disapponting that the manager didn't see this and give the subs a chance. I suppose nearly every football team in the country could do with a good striker/support man so good luck in finding one NA...'' (Skybet and Paddy Power offer 1.62. Stanleybet offers only 1.57...) FT 3:0 Maidstone Leyton 1 (1.90 @Gamebookers) 5 units Here we have two Ryman Premier teams from the relegation zone, Maidstone and Leyton. But Maidstone are solid hosts, they have 3-0-2 at home (8:6 goal-difference) and they have two home wins in a row. They're awful away (0:4 Hastings, 0:7 Chelmsford, 0:4 Ramsgate, 1:2 Hendon, 0:2 Wimbledon, 0:4 Billericay), they're the worst away team in the league by far, but at home, they look solid enough for guests like Leyton. They were great at home against 16th Carshalton (3:0) in August, and then good enough later against 18th Tonbridge (2:1) and against 7th Boreham Wood (3:2) in September. At home, they've lost only in the nervous first round, two months ago, to 4th Horsham and then, also back in August, to 3rd Staines (and Staines are the best away team in the league with 3-2-0). Maidstone also managed to win in both of their cup home matches (5:2 against Canvey Island in the League Cup and 3:0 against Erith in the FA Cup 1st qualifying round later on, they've lost in the 2nd round, you'll guess it, away, at Billericay). They've even won in the only friendly match played home in pre-season (2:1 against a strong Dagenham outfit) and recently welcomed back a couple of players who were injured and suspended. Didn't help them away at frustrated and angry Billericay outfit, didn't think it would, but now they're ready to take another three points IMO. Maidstone are currently 20th and Leyton are bottom of the table, 22nd. Leyton's away statistics look like this: 1-0-4 (7:14 goal-difference). They have three defeats in a row and they've only won at fellow strugglers Ashford Town (much worse home team than Maidstone). They've lost at surprise leaders Hendon, 5th Ramsgate, 10th Billericay and 13th Harrow. Almost a perfect simetry 1, 5, 10, 13, 20. I hope. Both teams need these points, but Maidstone are a good home team, they're playing infront of their fans, finally, after playing three away matches in 11 days, and Leyton are struggling at home and away, doesn't even matter where they play. They basically have no supporters when playing away from home and I think they'll maybe manage to take a point or two in their two home matches later this month, not before. 5 units, very nice odds, hop on and hope for the best. (Stanleybet offers terrific 2.10 on a home win. Bwin, Bet-at-home, PartyBets and Primebet offer the same odds as Gamebookers 1.90...) FT 2:1 Brentwood Staines 2 (2.00 @Skybet) 3 units I'll make it quick and simple. Staines are the best away team in the Ryman Premier. They have three away league wins in a row (won at Maidstone, Ramsgate and Horsham all very good teams, especially Ramsgate and Horsham, especially at home) and are currently 3rd on the league table, with one match less and three points less than leaders Hendon. Brentwood are also 3rd, but in the league below. Still undefeated in the league, I'm sure they'll be up for it. But, Ali G's boys from Staines are playing some nice football this season and if they could've done it at Horsham this Tuesday (it was 4:2 for the guests from Staines impressive, Horsham had 5-0-0 at home up to that match), then they shouldn't have much problem at Brentwood. But, it's the FA Cup, folks, and Brentwood already kicked one Ryman Premier club out of the FA Cup (it was only new boys Harlow, though), so only 3 units for me. The last time these two outfits played a match, it was 4:2 for the guests from Staines, also in the FA Cup, back in 2000. (Bwin offers 1.90...) FT 0:3 |
