6.10.
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RYMAN PREMIER Wimbledon Maidstone 1 (1.55 @Sportingbet) 7 units The mighty Dons finally started to play some football. After a terrible run in the league that saw them pick up only two points from five matches, they managed to beat Heybridge Swifts at home (and bring us some profit) and pick up a valuable point away at promotion candidates Margate. They're also in the FA Cup 3rd qualifying round, after beating Cray Wanderers (6:2) in the 1st and Debenham (5:1) in the 2nd round. Now it's time for them to pick up another three points in the league, at home against relegation candidates Maidstone, and they shouldn't have much problem doing that. Their midfielder Beckford got injured recently but they quickly brought in experienced Beard from St Albans (played 49 games for Stevenage last year) to take his place (''... Mark Beard added some real bite in midfield and I was thrilled with his performance - he really made a difference...'', said Wimbledon's manager after the last match) and their scorer Grazioli can't play in the FA Cup but will play in this league fixture (he will return to Barnet after next Saturday's league match). With the curse finally broken (narrow 1:0 win against Heybridge in Wimbledon's last home match), this could be a much more comfortable win. Maidstone's manager brought in a couple of new guys (forward Ashton, defender Guerreiro and reserve keeper Peck btw Smith left the club recently, only three weeks after he joined them) but that didn't help them in the FA Cup they lost in the 2nd qualifying round away at currently very beatable Billericay outfit (0:2). Maidstone do have two consecutive narrow league wins, but both of them were home wins away from home they're terrible (0:4 at Hastings, 0:7 at Chelmsford, 0:4 at Ramsgate and, finally, 1:2 at Hendon all defeats). They've lost both of their away cup matches too (1:2 at Cray Wanderers in the not so important Kent Senior Cup and 0:2 at Billericay in the FA Cup) and in the league they have conceded 23 goals in 9 outings (no other club conceded more). 1:0 home win would be fine enough though. Maidstone fans think that they need to bring in at least one or two strikers because of the recent transfers, injuries and low quality strikers they currently have. (Stanleybet offers very nice 1.60 on a home win. Bet365 offers 1.53, StanJames, Skybet and Bet-at-home offer 1.50...) FT 2:0 CONFERENCE SOUTH Bognor Regis Fisher OVER 2.75 (1.91 @Pinnacle) 5 units Bognor Regis Fisher 2 (2.30 @Expekt) 1 units Bognor Regis now have five defeats in a row (including an FA Cup defeat last Saturday) and only six points (away wins at relegation candidates Welling and Maidenhead) collected in the first ten league matches. They've lost all of their home matches this season (Hampton 2:4, Bishop's Stortford 0:2, Lewes 0:5, Eastbourne 0:2, Bath City 1:3). Bognor Regis lost in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round, they were playing at home against out-of-form Havant outfit and lost 1:2. Their best scorer Nightingale didn't play due to suspension and this time he will be back trying to end this terrible Bognor's run of results. Bognor were apparently a lot better against Havant then a couple of matches before and I think they will score against Fisher too. But I doubt they can win. Bognor Regis is a club with serious funding problems and instead of bringing some new players, they had to release two players from the club a couple of days ago. Standard defender Budd and scorer Town who just managed to get into the starting eleven both left the club. Their goalkeeper Stoner also wants to leave the club and some players left a couple of weeks ago too. This is what Bognor's supporters wrote about all these departures: ''... There was a brief interview with Jack in yesterdays Sports Argus (and I'm paraphrasing here as I haven't got the article to hand) but he was basically saying that Craig has gone a bit stale at Bognor and it's best that he leaves, Craig seemingly wants to leave and Jack is actively looking for a new keeper but the finance problem is restricting him. He pretty much said that as Craig is under contract he will continue until he finds someone to replace him. I appreciate that Jack's man-management skills are not exactly his strong point but surely coming out and saying that sort of thing in the local press is not exactly going to inspire Craig to produce his best form whilst he does remain playing for us!...'' ''... This whole player thing seems baffling at the minute.the Stoner affair ,Town gone, Johnson gone,Rowlands gone and now Budd...'' ''... Im sure Budd will go to someone in our league, maybe better. I still dont understand why we have got rid of him. If he said something to Jack, i think hes done the wrong thing, by just getting rid of him...'' ''... you know what this club is like jake.. get rid of some of our best players and replace them with %110 pure s****...'' Fisher will be without suspended defender Plumain who played in every league match so far and that could maybe put Bognor Regis scorers into a chance or two more. Fisher's manager brought in another striker, Thomas from Thurrock he was their best scorer for the last two seasons and now Fisher's attack force looks very good. Goulding scored seven goals already this season, Tomlin scored three and McCollin (who came from Ryman South outfit Corinthian where he scored 19 goals last season) scored three too. But, now when Thomas is here, he's probably going to take McCollin's place in the starting eleven. Btw, Fisher lost in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round too, they were playing at home against Margate. It was a surprise victory for a Ryman Premier League outfit Margate (promotion candidates in the league below), but at least Fisher's strikers scored a couple of times the match ended 3:4 (Goulding, Tomlin and new signing Thomas scored a goal each). Fisher's away form is 3-0-2 (3:2 win at Maidenhead, 0:3 defeat at Eastleigh, 1:0 win at St Albans, 1:2 defeat at Dorchester and finally a 3:2 win at Braintree). Fisher's manager Burnett can be proud a lot of experienced players left Fisher during the summer and what did he do? A simple thing really he brought in a bunch of young but highly motivated players from Dulwich Hamlet (Ryman South, two leagues below Conference South btw Burnett was a manager there last season), a teenage winger from League 2 outfit Dagenham (scored three goals, played in every game), another couple of youngsters from leagues below, and now a proved goalscorer who was a Luton (League 1) target during the summer. Nice job. This OVER 2.75 bet is winning if four or more goals are scored. But even if only three goals are scored, half of the stake is winning and the other half is refunded. If you ask me, very nice Pinnacle odds. If the odds change before you manage to place a bet, 3.25 for OVER 3.5 at Blue Square and Betway sounds great too. (Stanleybet offers only 1.53 on OVER 2.5 and their OVER 3.5 is pretty lousy too 2.42. Away win at Stanleybet is only 2.10. StanJames, Sportingbet, Coral and Bet365 offer 2.25 on an away win. 3.25 at Blue Square and Betway for OVER 3.5, sounds very nice...) FT 0:1 UNIBOND PREMIER (-1.5) Gateshead Ilkeston 1 (1.92 @Pinnacle) 5 units Huge difference in quality here. Gateshead are probably the biggest title candidates this season, they have seven wins and one draw (away at promotion candidates Matlock) and are currently 2nd only because they played two matches less than 1st Witton (and 3rd Guiseley). I can't see Ilkeston doing much away at Gateshead, at least not now (after losing three league matches in a row and also losing in the FA Cup 1st qualifying round, away at never-heard Southern Midlands League outfit Sutton Coldfield). Ilkeston's best scorer Palmer left to join Worksop a couple of days ago and they have some injury problems too. Here's a little match report from their last league match at home against Marine (last Saturday): ''... Manager Nigel Jemson surprised many fans by picking himself to play at sweeper in attempt to bolster his injury ravaged defence. The gamble seemed to be paying off when the Robins took the lead against Marine with an excellent free kick from Jemson (pictured right) himself. Although the manager had to limp off just before galf time things still looked good Neil Ross made it 2-0 early in the second half. With Ilkeston in complete control it came as a bit of a surprise when Paul Woolcott pulled a goal back for Marine on 66 minutes. There did not seem any need to panic but after Ricky Brewer was replaced in defence by Martin Carruthers the wheels appeared to come off the bus. With the Robins defence in total disarray Marine netted three times in seven minutes win a game which they seemed totally out of with eight minutes to go. Manager Nigel Jemson left the field to the sound of the cheering Marine supporters and total silence from the few stunned remaining Ilkeston fans after a game which initially promised so much...'' Just the kind of a match Gateshead players need after the dissapointing (maybe they want to win the league so much that they lacked motivation for the FA Cup) FA Cup 2nd qualifying round against Conference North (league above) outfit Vauxhall. Gateshead were apparently a better team up to the moment when their keeper got sent off and defender Flynn replaced him in goal because they had no reserve goalkeeper. Gateshead lost the match (1:3) but here is their chance for extending a great league run in style. Gateshead's keeper Keen will be on goal for this match his suspension starts on October 13th. The only thing that worries me a bit is the 'club of the month' curse. Gateshead have won this award for the first time ever and the award will be presented before this match. Well, I'm not supersticious, but, as Steve Carrell would say in 'The Office (US)', I'm a littlesticious. Okay, seriously, anything but a strong Gateshead home win would be the biggest surprise in the Unibond Premier league so far this season. Surprises happen of course and the real question is are we going to be very unlucky this time. Hope not. This bet is winning if Gateshead manage to win with two or more goals margin. If Pinnacle changes this bet to a (-1.75) home win, then it's probably better to bet on OVER 2.75. (The odds on a regular home win are not that good Skybet offers 1.44, most of the other bookies offer 1.40. Stanleybet is a little better with their 1.50...) FT 1:2 CONFERENCE NORTH Gainsborough Alfreton OVER 2.5 (1.85 @Pinnacle) 4 units A little statistical bet. Every single Gainsborough's league match this season was OVER 2.5 and Alfreton played seven OVERs and only three UNDERs. Three or more goals are probably going to happen here Gainsborough's home matches against Alfreton in the last couple of years ended 4:0 and 2:2 and Alfreton's home matches against Gainsborough ended 3:1 and 1:2. If the odds at Pinnacle change, Blue Square and Betway offer great 3.25 for OVER 3.5... (Stanleybet is way more careful, their odds on OVER 3.5 are only 2.42, and the odds on OVER 2.5 are lousy 1.53. Blue Square and Betway offer 3.25 on OVER 3.5. Very nice...) FT 2:2 CONFERENCE SOUTH Maidenhead Newport 2-3 GOALS (1.95 @Betway) 3 units Maidenhead Newport 1:1 FT (7.00 @Blue Square) 1 unit Another little statistical bet every Newport match this season was UNDER 2.5 and exactly two goals were scored in their last four league matches. Teams from the bottom of the table don't manage to score against Newport but mid-table teams and promotion candidates did manage to score against them. I think Maidenhead should also score at home against Newport they scored in every match this season except against Bath City in the 4th round. They had three exact scores in the last four matches 1:1 and I think this match will end 1:1 (most likely), 0:2 or 1:2 (that would be Newport's first OVER 2.5 match of the season but it's gotta happen sometimes). Only the 0:1 away win can screw up this 2-3 GOALS bet IMO. Btw, these two teams already played against each other in the league this season Newport were playing at home and the match ended 1:1. In the 2005/2006 season, Newport won 3:0 when they were playing home and the reverse fixture at Maidenhead ended 1:1 (and season before that, Maidenhead's home match ended with a 2:0 Newport away win). Well look at all that. Gotta try this one, people, I won't be sorry if this bet fails... Most of you already know me I can't help it when I see so much information all going in the same direction... (Stanleybet is offering lovely 2.15 on this 2-3 GOALS option and very nice looking 8.00 on 1:1 full time score, but the official odds will always be from online bookies Stanleybet is available only in a couple of European countries. Blue Square offers 1.91 on this 2-3 GOALS option. Betway and StanJames offer only 6.50 for 1:1 FT...) FT 2:3 CONFERENCE NORTH Kettering Hyde 1 (1.87 @Pinnacle) 3 units Both of these teams are indeed promotion candidates, but Kettering are the biggest title candidates in this league by far. They've won in all home matches this season (their goal difference at home is 17-4) and Hyde picked up only a point in their last three away matches (1:2 defeat at Harrogate, 3:3 at Gainsborough and finally 1:2 defeat at Southport). Hyde also lost in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round (btw, Kettering won 3:1 at home against Redditch) they were playing away, at mid-table Stalybridge, and lost 0:1. This will no doubt be a tough match and I don't think Kettering can win here as comfortably as they did at home against Vauxhall (6:0) or Boston (3:0) but I think they'll manage to win in the end. Hyde will be without their standard central midfielder Pickford due to suspension (didn't play in the FA Cup match neither) and Kettering manager brought in defender Collins on a 3-month loan from MK Dons (and a couple of players are finally fit after their injuries). Kettering can't really afford themselves a defeat or even a draw here (and they surely know that if they manage to stop Seddon, Hyde's best scorer, they will do half a job already) because Harrogate (26 points, just like Kettering) are playing away at struggling Hinckley and Southport (23 points) are playing at home against struggling Hucknall. They need these points. Last season, Kettering won in both matches against Hyde in the Conference North (1:0 at home, 5:3 away). Pinnacle has this bet as a -0.5 asian handicap, but -0.5 simply means straight home win. If the odds change at Pinnacle, go to the Blue Square, they offer 1.80 on a home win, that's a very nice price too. (Blue Square offers 1.80, Bet-at-home offers 1.75, StanJames and Skybet offer 1.73. Stanleybet is offering 1.73 also) FT 0:2 SOUTHERN PREMIER King's Lynn Chippenham 1 (1.78 @Pinnacle) 3 units Southern Premier league seems very tricky this season, at least in this stage. Brackley are currently 1st but just because they played a game more and had some easier matches this month (they picked up just one point in their two home matches against promotion candidates Chippenham and King's Lynn), Hemel Hempstead are 2nd but they're also on/off outfit (lost at home against struggling Swindon) and King's Lynn are 3rd (three points less than Brackley and two points less than Hemel) but they had a really weird schedule so far they played seven (7) away matches and only one home match, in the last round when they've beat Gloucester. They had a great September with three wins and a draw away at current leaders Brackley and, all in all, did a good job on their neverending away tour. That's why I see them as the biggest favourites for the Southern Premier title this season they picked up 14 points (4-2-1) in seven away matches and they're traditionally strong at home. Only 6th Rugby (also promotion candidates) managed to beat King's Lynn. King's Lynn's manager recently brought in a highly experienced defender Fleming (played in Premiership, came from League 2 outfit Rotherham) but I suppose this guy is tired of defending and wants to go forward a bit more he scored against Gloucester in the last league match and also in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round against Stourbridge (King's Lynn played away and won 5:0). Stourbridge play only in one league below Southern Premier. In the FA Cup 1st qualifying round, King's Lynn were also playing away from home (won 3:0 at Unibond Premier outfit Lincoln United). There's no doubt about the fact that their fans are looking forward to any home game after nine (9) away matches and just one (1) home match this season. Chippenham are currently 4th both them and 5th Team Bath have two points less than King's Lynn. Chippenham's away form is 2-1-1, they've won at current leaders Brackley (who will, in the end, probably just fight for a play-off spot) and 20th Banbury, lost at 17th Hitchin and shared points at 11th Halesowen in the last round before that, they shared points at home too, they played 1:1 with 15th Corby. I'm not impressed and neither was the manager of Hallen, an outfit from the Western league (two leagues below Southern Premier) who Chippenham managed to beat only 2:0 in the FA Cup 2nd qualifying round. Chippenham almost didn't make it to the 2nd qualifying round at all their 1st round match ended 1:1 (away at really-never-heard Beaconsfield) but they managed to win in the replay at home. I'm really not impressed, I'm telling you. Draw is IMO the worst thing that can happen to King's Lynn here, but I think they'll manage to win this one. For the home fans. If the odds at Pinnacle change, go to Sportingbet who offer 1.75 for the home win. (Stanleybet offers very nice 1.90 on a home win. Sportingbet offers 1.75, Skybet offers 1.73, Bet-at-home and Bwin offer 1.70...) FT 2:0 |
