23.2.2008. -18 units
Basingstoke Bromley OVER 3.5 (2.62 @Blue Square) 6 units
I'll try to keep it short you all know about Basingstoke's bad form lately. They're 10th, they lost their chance for a play-off spot and their goal-difference in the last 8 matches is 13:27 seven out of these eight matches produced at least four goals and the only 'UNDER 3.5' was a 2:1 away win at terrible home team Maidenhead more than a month ago. After that, they lost 0:6 away at Eastbourne and 1:5 at home to Fisher, then shared points (2:2) away at Hampton and, finally, last Saturday, lost 2:3 at home to Havant. Their last four home matches all produced not four, but between five and seven goals. Only two teams in Conference South conceded more than Basingstoke this season 20th St Albans conceded 61, 22nd Sutton conceded 60 and 10th Basingstoke conceded as much as 55 in 31 matches . This time they will be without strikers Charles and Taylor (Taylor scored one and Charles didn't score at all in the last five matches so that's not that big of a problem they still have Fitzgerald, Warner, Wells and Surey who can all score a goal or two and another positive fact is that Basingstoke usually attack and want to score even when they're 0:6 down), but also without standard and most probably their best defender Dolan all three are suspended. They have a lot of injury doubts too and every time when they play without a couple of standard players, the match produces a lot of goals. I think we will see a lot of goals in this match too after all, even their manager just admitted they lost their play-off chances and some fans think he could give a chance to some reserve players in the near future. That should mean more goals too.
Bromley are currently 9th and their play-off chances are also very slim. They also score and concede a lot of goals only league leaders scored more than Bromley (Eastbourne scored 62 and Bromley scored 61 in 31 match). They conceded 54 only one less than Basingstoke. Only Sutton and St Albans conceded more goals away from home (Sutton and St Albans conceded 32 and Bromley conceded 30 in 16 away matches), only three best away teams in the league scored more than them away from home (Lewes scored 33, Eastbourne and Eastleigh both 30 and Bromley scored 28 in the 16 away matches) and if we look at their four league matches played in the last 30 days, these are the results: 2:3 defeat at Hampton, 1:0 home win over poor, defensively oriented Sutton, 1:6 defeat at mid-table Hayes and, finally, 3:1 home win over Weston. And there were some cup matches full of goals too one OVER 4.5 and one OVER 5.5. Williams, Hockton and McDonnell are all in great form, all of them scored a bunch of goals lately and all three of them scored in the 3:1 home win over Weston last Saturday. McDonnell will probably be out injured, but they have plenty of other guys who can score so that's fine with me. Bromley's goalkeeper Walker also picked up a knock in their last match and is also a doubt. Bromley are one of few teams at this level who has a 'TV' section on their website you can see all of the match highlights. We should definately see a lot of goals here Bromley play open, attacking football with lots and lots of chances, but they also concede very silly goals very often. Sutton had a lot of luck and a lot of players behind the ball if we exclude that home win, we have five Bromley's matches (in all competitions) that produced between four and seven goals in the last 30 days. It was 3:2 for Bromley at their place in September. 2.62 is way too big and 2.89 at my local bookie is almost too good to be true.
(2.89 at Stanleybet, 1.93 at Pinnacle for OVER 3...)
Hampton Fisher OVER 3.5 (2.75 @Blue Square) 4 units
Another Conf South match that should produce a lot of goals we have two play-off candidates but also two teams that score and concede a lot of goals. Hampton are currently 3rd, only league leaders Eastbourne (62) and Bromley (61) scored more than them (Hampton scored 60 goals in 29 matches), they scored the most goals in the league at home (34 in 14 home matches), but they also concede a lot Hampton conceded almost twice more goals than 1st Eastbourne and 2nd Lewes (both of those teams conceded 22 and 3rd Hampton conceded 40). Their last two matches produced 'only' 3 goals (0:3 defeat at defensively oriented Braintree, 2:1 win away at poorest home team in the league Maidenhead matches never go OVER 3.5 there), but before that they had 7 matches that produced between 4 or 5 goals in the last 9. It was 2:2 at home vs bottom of the table Sutton, 4:1 home win over Hayes, 1:2 defeat at defensively oriented Sutton, 4:0 home win over Welling, 2:3 home defeat to Thurrock, 2:1 away win at Lewes who were league leaders at the time, 3:2 home win over Bromley, 2:2 away at Newport, 2:2 at home vs Basingstoke, 0:3 away at Braintree and 2:1 away win at Maidenhead. This time they'll be without their defender Lake due to suspension.
Fisher are currently 7th, but 5th Bath, 6th Eastleigh and Fisher all have 49 points so play-off really isn't mission impossible for them. They had an incredible run of wins, then picked up only one point out of six but then they won again it was 4:2 against Hayes at Fisher's place last Saturday. Fisher scored 47 goals in 30 matches and they conceded as much as 45 no other play-off candidate condeded more. Before that 4:2 win over Hayes last weekend, they lost 1:4 at home to Eastleigh, but also won 5:1 away at Basingstoke. UNDER's at Weston and Bath were expected, just like this time I expect an OVER 3.5. They will be without striker McCollin, but Goulding, Thomas and Tomlin are all in great form. I'm sure they'll score in this match the only question is how many goals. 'I always tell my team to play attacking football and pass the ball. We like to win pretty. If we're playing away we'll go there and attack like we have done all season', Fisher's manager said a couple of days ago. Always nice to hear. Way too big odds once again.
(2.89 at Stanleybet, 1.93 at Pinnacle for OVER 3...)
Heybridge Wimbledon 2 (1.80 @Sportingbet) 5 units
Wimbledon are really flying high at the moment they have four handicap wins in a row (2:0 away at 11th Harrow, 2:0 away at 4th Horsham, 5:0 at home over 22nd Leyton and, finally, 6:1 at home over 19th Heybridge this Tuesday), their place in the play-off is now practically guaranteed (they're 2nd, with 8 points more than other three teams that are currently in the play-off zone), but they also believe they could earn direct promotion Chelmsford have as much as 9 points more (Wimbledon had some major problems with injuries earlier in the season), but they're not playing as good as before and Wimbledon look like they really could win all the matches untill the end of the season. Chelmsford and Wimbledon are also the two best away teams in the league Wimbledon have 7-5-3 (29:19), but those away defeats happened a long time ago. They will be without midfielder Hatton who is suspended, but they have a big squad, they brought in a couple of new players lately and they should win comfortably.
Heybridge are currently 18th, just outside the relegation zone, but I think they'll have to look for points in other matches, not this one. They just lost left back Barber who went to league rivals, Boreham Wood (fans are devastated he was apparently one of the most important players), winger Harkin returned to Charlton, they picked up just one point in the last three matches (2:3 defeat away at 7th Billericay, 0:6 home defeat to 9th Ashford and, finally, 2:2 away draw at 15th Folkestone last Saturday Heybridge played terrible in the 1st half, their keeper saved a penalty, they were 0:2 down, but managed to grab a point in the 2nd half didn't manage to score a winner against 10 players for the last couple of minutes, so I'm really not scared of them). Yes, that's 11 goals conceded in the last three matches Wimbledon scored 13 in the last three. At home, Heybridge have 7-5-3 and that's not bad, but this is mighty Wimbledon they're up against now. It was 1:0 at Wimbledon for the hosts, but this time I expect a more comfortable win. Heybridge brought in a new striker recently, but that's only Savage from a league below who didn't make it at some other Ryman Premier teams earlier this season.
(1.75 at Stanleybet, 1.73 at Gamebookers, Paddy Power, PartyBets, 1.70 or worse elsewehere, 1.89 currently at Pinnacle for (-0.75)...)
TROPHY/RYMAN DOUBLE: Tamworth Aldershot 2 @1.67 & Ramsgate Wealdstone 1 @1.62 (2.7054 @Bet365) 3 units
Respect to Tamworth I'm sure their fans are proud, they're in the FA Trophy quarter-finals, they managed to beat Stafford in the 3rd round (2:2 away, 2:1 at home), but I'm afraid their FA Trophy journey is over now. Stafford are deep down in the relegation zone of Conference National (22nd, 16 points in 29 matches, it's obvious now that Stafford are going to get relegated) and Aldershot are something else they're the current league leaders, they're the best away team in Conf National and they will probably be in the League 2 next season. Tamworth are currently 15th in Conf North, at home they have 7-3-5, they have two handicap wins in a row, but they only managed to beat two struggling teams, 21st Vauxhall and 19th Hucknall. Before that two wins, they lost 0:5 away at 16th Workington. Forwards Marrison and Foster are both cup-tied and Tamworth will also be without suspended defender Evans. I know Aldershot want to play in the League 2 next season, but FA Trophy final at Wembley also sounds nice, doesn't it? Aldershot's manager will field a full-strength side and you should know that Aldershot has 5 wins (4 handicap wins) and a draw (at home with 3rd Cambridge) in the last 6 matches. Their last league match was a 3:1 home win over Stevenage who are 4th in Conf National, but apparently it could've easily been 6 or 7:1. Away from home, Aldershot have two handicap wins in a row. Anything but a strong away win would be a major surprise.
Ramsgate didn't have an ideal month after they won away at 12th Maidstone, they only managed to share points at home with 13th Harlow (0:0) and away at 21st East Thurrock (1:1) last Saturday. But, they still have a chance for a play-off spot (they're currently 8th, but they only have three points less than 3rd Staines) and they're traditionally great at home (this season it's 9-4-2, 30:14). They will be without defender Hill, but this should be a strong home win nevertheless. Why? Because Wealdstone are in a lot of problems not just they're 19th, down in the relegation zone, but they will be without a couple of very important players their best player and midfielder O'Leary requested a transfer and went to Hendon, right-back Rice returned to Wycombe (he was at Wealdstone on loan) and midfielder Ashe and defender Martin both missed the match at Wimbledon due to their injuries and could miss out again. And their keeper was truly awful at Wimbledon I mean really really awful (they lost 1:6). Wealdstone aren't terrible away from home (6-1-8, 22:28), but with all those important players out, I doubt they can do something here. They have three defeats in a row and if we look at their last 5 away matches, we can see four defeats (at 16th Carshalton, 18th Heybridge, 7th Billericay and 2nd Wimbledon) and a win at poor 20th Hastings.
(2.64 at Bwin, Tipico and Bet-at-home, 2.62 at Coral, Paddy Power and Skybet, 2.54 at StanJames, 2.52 at Gamebookers...)
FT 1:2 / 2:2