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  • blogomoljac

    Jest da spekulanti dobrim dijelom utjecu na porast cijena, ali pravi uzrok je drasticni porast potraznje, jer se bez toga toliki spekulanti u to ne bi ni upustili. Potraznja dize cijenu i bez nestasice. I prije se spekuliralo, ali se sad kroz potraznju to cini vise. Cijena bi ionako porasla, ali kroz njih je jos veca. To ti je isto kao sa stambenim prostorom kod nas. Tek udjelom spekulanata se cijena napuhala iako to nije realna vrijednost. Kako to zavrsava pokazuje krah cijena imobilija u Americi koji je mnoge svjetske banke bacio u krizu.

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    30.05.2008. (20:54)    -   -   -   -  

  • fueltank

    @blogomoljac-nema potraznja veze, dobro autor kaze - goriva se proizvodi il vadi dovoljno sam se cjena napuhuje. Sva potraznja se pokrije bez problemos ###

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    30.05.2008. (21:12)    -   -   -   -  

  • Sanja

    Imaju špekulanti svoje prstiće u tome... no, puno trošimo nafte... :) Ne bi nikome na pamet palo špekulirati bez da će imati pokriće u potražnji. Ne kažem da je potražnja kriva... da su cijene napuhane, napuhane su. Da države od toga imaju koristi - imaju. Zato i šute. Ali malo da stanemo na loptu s potrošnjom energije, ne bi nam bilo na odmet. :)

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    30.05.2008. (21:42)    -   -   -   -  

  • SVasTarA

    U PETAK CE TE POLJUBITI OSOBA KOJA TE VOLI NESMIJES PREKIDAT OVAJ LANAC ZATO
    KOPIRAJ TEKST I POSALJI GA ZA 143 MINUTA NA NA 15 ADRESA A KAD POSALJES PRITISNI
    F6 I VIDJET CES SVOJE IME NA MONITORU I VELIKIM SLOVIMA ISPISANO IME TVOJE LJUBAVI

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    30.05.2008. (23:43)    -   -   -   -  

  • davdagic

    @blogomoljac_@Sanja, svakako da i potrošnja diže cijenu, to se podrazumijeva. Ovdje sam samo htio progovoriti o ekstremnim cijenama koje se dižu stvaranjem dojma o nestašici. Okey.

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    31.05.2008. (10:50)    -   -   -   -  

  • barba

    Ovo je iz Economista
    ....
    Stocks, bonds and barrels
    Those who see speculators as the culprits point to the emergence of oil and other commodities as a popular asset class, alongside stocks, bonds and property. Ever more investors are piling into the oil markets, the argument runs, pushing up the price as they do so. The number of transactions involving oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the biggest market for oil, has almost tripled since 2004. That neatly mirrors a tripling of the price of oil over the same period.

    But Jeffrey Harris, the chief economist of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates NYMEX and other American commodities exchanges, does not see any evidence that the growth of speculation in oil has caused the price to rise. Rising prices, after all, might have been stimulating the growing investment, rather than the other way around. There is no clear correlation between increased speculation and higher prices in commodities markets in general. Despite a continuing flow of investment in nickel, for example, its price has fallen by half over the past year.

    By the same token, the prices of several commodities that are not traded on any exchange, and are therefore much harder for speculators to invest in, have risen even faster than that of oil. Deutsche Bank calculates that cadmium, a rare metal, has appreciated twice as much as oil since 2001, for example, and the price of rice has risen fractionally more.

    Investment can flood into the oil market without driving up prices because speculators are not buying any actual crude. Instead, they buy contracts for future delivery. When those contracts mature, they either settle them with a cash payment or sell them on to genuine consumers. Either way, no oil is hoarded or somehow kept off the market. The contracts are really a bet about which way the price will go and the number of bets does not affect the amount of oil available. As Mr Harris puts it, there is no limit to the number of “paper barrels” that can be bought and sold.

    That makes it harder for a bubble to develop in oil than in the shares of internet firms, say, or in housing, where the supply of the asset is finite. Ultimately, says David Kirsch of PFC Energy, a consultancy, there is only one type of customer for crude: refineries. If speculators on the futures markets get carried away, pushing prices so high that refineries run at a loss, they will simply shut down, causing the price to fall again. Moreover, speculators do not always assume that prices will rise. As recently as last year, the speculative bears on NYMEX outweighed the bulls.

    There is, admittedly, a growing category of inherently bullish investment funds that seek to track commodity-price indices, in which oil is usually the biggest component. Politicians have begun to denounce these “index funds”, since they make money for their investors only if prices rise. According to Mr Lieberman, they have grown in value from $13 billion to $260 billion over the past five years. This surge of investors betting on rising prices, many observers contend, has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, helping to push prices ever higher and thus attract yet more investment.

    But Bob Greer, of PIMCO, an asset-management firm, argues that even index funds make unlikely suspects. For one thing, they too invest in futures, rather than in physical supplies of oil. So every month, they must trade contracts that are about to fall due for ones that will not mature for several months. That makes them big sellers of oil for prompt delivery.

    What is more, their growth is not as impressive as it first appears. Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital, an investment bank, puts the total value of index funds and other similar investments at $225 billion. That is less than half the market capitalisation of Exxon Mobil, he points out, and a tiny fraction of the $50 trillion-odd of transactions in the oil markets each year. Although index funds have grown quickly, that growth stems in large part from the rise in value of the futures they hold, rather than from fresh investment flows. He estimates that index funds swelled by $13 billion in the first quarter of this year, for example, of which all but $2 billion derives from the rise in commodity prices.

    Back to basics
    Mr Harris of the CFTC, for one, believes that the oil price is still a function of supply and demand. For the past few years, the world's production capacity has grown only sluggishly. Meanwhile, demand, especially from the developing world, has been growing faster. So there is hardly any slack in the system. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are thought to be able to increase their output from today's levels, and even then, there are doubts, since Saudi Arabia, in particular, is secretive about the state of its oil industry.
    ..

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    01.06.2008. (13:29)    -   -   -   -  

  • Monsoon

    Apsolutno tocno da cijene ne odrazavaju ponudu/potraznju, iako je potraznja u zadnjih 5-10 godina drasticno porasla prvenstveno zahvaljujuci Kini i Indiji (porast u 'razvijenim zemljama Zapada' je u odnosu na ove dvije zanemariv), dakle stvar je spekulacija.
    Ali tako je vec zadnje dvije-tri godine jer ne postoji vise velika rezerva povecanja proizvodnje kao prije 30tak godina, a koliko pratim ni interes za takvim povecanjem nije prevelik. Inace, opet najavljuju burnu sezonu uragana, sto uz poslovicno tanke zivce burzovnih mesetara, garantira novi rast cijena tijekom ljetne sezone u USA. Pozdrav!

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    03.06.2008. (09:24)    -   -   -   -  

  • davdagic

    @barba, uf di si me našo s ovim iz Economista, ali to je vijest prije nego je US Congress natjerao CFTC na istrage, a potom je objavljeno kako istraga u biti traje odavno...
    @Monsoon, pa neki dan su objavili da je Hercegovina bogata naftom (leži na njoj), a komercijalnu eksploataciju očekuju kroz kojih 5-6 godina :-)

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    03.06.2008. (12:57)    -   -   -   -  

  • Monsoon

    Cuj, ovo s Hercegovinom mi je jasno: pa to su samo pronasli podzemne spremnike Ljube Cesic-Rojsa, komercijalna eksploatacija je i blize nego nam se cini! :))

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    04.06.2008. (09:14)    -   -   -   -  

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