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Futuresi su danas u plusu, ali je izašla vrlo loša procjena GS-a. To bi moglo vrlo loše djelovati na market u slijedećem razdoblju, ako se kriza počne odmotavati na ovaj način: Prepare for $2 Trillion Lending Shock: Goldman Topics:Mortgages | Real Estate | Interest Rates | Inflation | Federal Reserve | Federal Budget (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Economy (U.S.) Companies:Goldman Sachs Group Inc By Reuters | 16 Nov 2007 | 07:51 AM ET The impact of the U.S. mortgage market crisis on the underlying economy could be "dramatic" as leveraged investors may need to scale back lending by up to $2 trillion, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. AP In a report dated Nov. 15, Goldman's Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said a "back-of-the-envelope" estimate of credit losses on outstanding mortgages, based on past default experience, was around $400 billion. But unlike stock market losses, which are typically absorbed by "long-only" investors, this mortgage-related hit is mostly borne by leveraged investors such as banks, broker-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises. And leveraged investors react to losses by actively cutting back lending to keep capital ratios from falling -- A bank targeting a constant capital ratio of 10 percent, for example, would need to shrink its balance by $10 for every $1 in losses. "The macroeconomic consequences could be quite dramatic," Hatzius said in the note to clients. "If leveraged investors see $200 billion of the $400 billion aggregate credit loss, they might need to scale back their lending by $2 trillion." "This is a large shock," he said, adding the number equates to 7 percent of total debt owed by U.S. non-financial sectors. Hatzius said such a shock could produce a "substantial recession" if it occurred over one year, or a long period of sluggish growth if it occurred over two-to-four years. One of a number of caveats outlined in the report was that baseline economic forecasts may already include significant reductions in the pace of mortgage lending. But the conclusion remained a gloomy one regardless. "The likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized," he wrote. "While the uncertainty is large, the associated downward pressure on lending raises the risk of significant weakness in economic activity." |
Nije mi cilj samo zamijetiti što se dešava na tržištu, za to imate CNBC, ali čisto da popratim jučerašnje komentare pada: Da ste kupili callove na indexe kada je nasdaq bio na -95, ako se tržište i otvori sa minusom od 20-tak pointa, još uvijek bi callovi trebali biti u plusu, no bounce sa jučerašnjeg dna je izgleda gotov, iako bi se danas ipak moglo oporaviti. Najbolje je postaviti nekakav stop-loss u glavi u ovom slučaju, jer je uspostavljen novi trend prema dolje. Katalizator pada je danas Wachovia: In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Wachovia (Charts, Fortune 500) said the complex debt instruments it had in its portfolio declined in value by an estimated $1.1 billion pre-tax in October. The bank had reported $1.3 billion in pre-tax losses in the third quarter tied to pools of debt backed by home loans The additional losses from Wachovia come after Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) said last week it expects to write down a further $8 billion to $11 billion in the fourth quarter due to credit- and mortgage-related problems. Za zamijetiti je zaista veliki jučerašnji volumen kod rasprodaje, a indikatori još nisu na oversold nivoima. |
Za primjetiti je danas da 4 jahača (GOOG, RIMM, APPL, AMZN) su sada lideri, ali prema dolje! Prednjači GOOG koji je pao za 50-tak pointa i sada se mrvicu oporavlja na oko $690. |
Trenutno je veliki pad u toku i vrijeme je možda za vrlo kratkoročno kupovanje callova na indexe. Naime, iako chartovi pokazuju da je korekcija u toku i da ima još dosta prostora prema dolje, pad je jak i nekako previše brz, pa bi današnji dan ipak na nasdaq-u mogli završiti bolje od ovih -95 koji predstavljaju sadašnju sliku na buzi. |