What is the TICK sa Seeking Alpha - $TICK za Stockcharts
I want to first say that I just came across this indicator a few months ago, so my experience is very limited with it. Here is a good definition of what it is and then I’ll explain how I use it.
Via daytradingit :
The Tick can be used as a short-term indicator while day trading. Although it represents the number of stocks ticking up minus the number of stocks ticking down on the NYSE, it can be used as a barometer for stocks trading on all US Exchanges.
For example, if the Tick reads +200, then 200 more stocks on the NYSE are ticking up then are ticking down. This is obviously a bullish signal. If the Tick should read -354, then we understand that 354 more stocks are ticking down then are ticking up. This is a bearish signal. In addition to the actual “number” reading of the Tick, one should also pay attention to how the Tick is trading in relation to it’s support and resistance.
When the Tick remains positive on the day bullish momentum can continue. When the Tick remains negative, bearish momentum can continue. However, if the Tick should rise over +1000, the market will likely soon reverse because it has become over bought. The reverse is also true. If the Tick should fall below -1000, the market will likely reverse because it has become very oversold.
If you happen to be long when the Tick begins to rise over +1000 or short when the Tick begins to fall below -1000, you need to begin to lighten up on your positions or close them entirely in anticipation of a reversal.
To be extremly careful while trading, only enter longs when the Tick is above zero and shorts when the Tick is below zero.
How I use it most of the time is just how they recommend, as a sentiment reading gauging extreme bullish/bearishness. However, I was just thinking about how it hit an all time high on Tuesday and maybe this is a very bullish sign. We’ll only know in hindsight, of course, but gauging by how my shorts acted yesterday and the resiliency of yesterday's market to not reverse completely, this could be the start of a decent trading bottom.
Yesterday was not one of my better trading days in a while, so I’ll refrain from making any recommendations as to the direction of today's market. I feel if you’re flat, then getting into the markets now is sort of like getting into a market that realistically could go either way. There are other ways to participate in trading, such as picking a market like gold or oil where the trend is a little more established. I would be very cautious about over weighting long or short positions in the overall markets at this point.
Hope that sheds some light on the tick and how you can implement it into your trading strategy.
MarketSci blogger piše:
The indicator RSI(2) has been garnering a lot of attention from the blogosphere. A number of fellow bloggers (Woodshedder, IBDIndex, Bill Rempel and Dogwood come to mind) have been doing all sorts of nifty stuff with it and I recommend that TA-oriented folks get pled into that discussion.
In this report I’m going to test the indicator in its simplest form and look at how its performance has evolved over time (and why trading it as a static strategy might be a dangerous approach).
I’ve read a lot of different interpretations of RSI(2), but in its simplest form, traders go long when the RSI is very low (i.e. oversold) and short when it’s very high (i.e. overbought). In the graph below I’ve assumed a trader went long the S&P 500 at today’s close whenever the RSI closed below 10 and short whenever it closed above 90, from 2000 (frictionless with no return on cash).
Sa Vix and more
The Arms Index or TRIN is an indicator that I watch closely for short to intermediate-term setups. The indicator which combines ratios of advancing issues to declining issues and advancing volume to declining volume is a reasonably reliable contrary signal.
Since mid-October the Arms Index has been generating a number of historically high signals. In the chart below, I used a 10 day exponential moving average as a smoothing factor. Note that the TRIN’s 10 day EMA appears to have climaxed yesterday in the manner that has historically provided excellent buying opportunities. To my ears, yesterday’s climax in the TRIN is sesting that the November 21st bottom is likely to hold. Shorts beware…
TRIN na stockcharts - treba uzeti 10-dnevni prosjek
Ovo je tjedan ekspiracije opcija i neke teorije govore da izdavači opcija, veliki fondovi i banke, žele platiti što manje za izdane opcije.
Evo kalkulatora najniže cijene koju trebaju platiti:
Max pain za vlasnike opcija
Igre izdavača opcija tjeraju dionice na nivoe bliske tome da njihova isplata bude minimalna ili barem blizu te.
Fond manageri pesimistični i sjede na cash-u
On Wednesday, Merrill Lynch (MER) released its monthly survey of fund managers for October. The survey covered 172 fund managers with $531 billion under management. Merrill called the survey “one of the most pessimistic” ever.
Here are some highlights:
* The number of managers believing the global economy is in recession jumped to 69% - from 44% in September.
* Sixty percent of managers believe the global economy will weaken over the next 12 months - up from 37% in September.
* The number of managers overweight cash increased to 49% - up from 36% in September.
* Forty-three percent of managers think global equity markets are undervalued - up from 15% in September. The October number is a 10 year high.
Puno je novca "on the sidelines" i kada krene, rally će biti jak.
Samo je pitanje, koliko će se još market istitrati i iskorigirati uračunavajući recesiju. Kao contrarian indikator, zanimljiv je ovaj nivo pesimizma.
Nakon što je tržište krenulo prema dolje, sada se već pitamo je li nekakav short term bottom blizu.
Iako pokazatelji kao što su VIX i Put & call ratio nisu još na tim nivoima da bi mogli sa većom sigurnošću reći da smo blizu, oversold situacija na svim indeksima je očita, a i sentiment ulagača je karakterističan za situaciju koja je blizu dna:
Graf iznad pokazuje SP500 index, koji je sada već dosta overbought, a danas ćemo po svojoj prilici i dobiti izlazni MACD signal.
Slijedeće linije otpora koincidiraju i sa 200-dnevnim MA.
Isto tako, VIX se prije par dana nalazio na jako niskim nivoima, pokazujući i preveliki optimizam investitora.
Drugi indikatori su se okrenuli, pa tako i "AAII poll had entered the danger area for rallies, with 53.29% bullish, only 26.3 % bearish" stanje karakteristično više za market top, nego za dobre prilike za kupnju.
Isto pokazuje put & call ratio, 21-dnevni prosjek pokazuje pad i vrijednosti karakterističnije za market top.
Zaključak bi bio da je trenutni upside potential puno manji nego downside.
Naravno da indeksi mogu i gore od ovih nivoa, ali nekako mislim da to nije još puno.
Postotak dionica iznad 200 dnevnog MA se isto jako popeo.
Svi ti pokazatelji nisu na nekim toliko ekstremnim nivoima, ali ipak, mislim da uz sadašnje fundamentalne opasnosti i povijesno loš period godine (sell in may and go away) downside risk je puno veći nego upside potential.
Zanimljivo je, jer i ovu statističku činjenicu bi trebalo uzeti u obzir.
Sa Sy Hardinovog bloga:
As you know we believe the big factor the last few weeks have been first, the 'monthly strength period' that provided a big up-week three weeks ago, then the usually negative week before an options expirations week last week, which produced the big decline, and now this week the usually positive expirations week, which has been positive so far.
As I explained a few weeks ago, I believe the options related activity is created by the big program-trading firms using the power of their huge sell programs to drive the market down the week before the options expirations week, so they can load up on futures and call options that will expire the following week, for pennies on the dollar. And then they use the power of their huge buy programs to create upside volatility the week of the options, so they can sell those futures and options for huge profits that they bought for pennies on the dollar the previous week.
Yesterday's big rally provided the opportunity for them to take those profits early this week. How big are their profits? I've been watching 'out-of-the money' call options on The Russell 2000. With the Russell's big plunge last week some strike prices had dropped to so far out of the money that the options could be had for less than $1. And they then soared well back 'into the money' this week with the Russell's big rally, and were selling at $20 to $30 yesterday. Twenty to thirty times their cost in a week. Worth a little manipulation?
Objavljujem i ovaj graf, koji je vrlo sličan donjima, ali seže više u prošlost i pokazuje nam koliko je zapravo sadašnji trenutak rijedak.
Dio je jednog besplatnog investicijskog pisma koje dobijam, a u svojim besplatnim alatima nemam mogućnost odlaska unazad za više od 3 godine, pa ga prenosim:
Nemojte ovo shvatiti kao moj poziv za investiranjem, tu odluku ipak morate donijeti sami i shvatite jednu stvar: USRED BEAR MARKETA SMO, ALI SU SE MOŽDA STEKLI UVJETI ZA BEAR MARKET RALLY !!!