prognosis and picks

subota, 21.08.2010.

21.8. Saturday

Velez Mostar - Rudar Prijedor
pick 1
odd 1.45

Arsenal - Blackpool
pick 1
odd 1.20

Wigan - Chelsea
pick 2
odd 1.30

Lyon - Brest
pick 1
odd 1.35

21.08.2010. u 01:56 • 3 KomentaraPrint#

petak, 20.08.2010.

20.8. Friday

NK Zagreb - Zaprešić
pick 1
odd 1.35

Bayern - Wolfsburg
pick 1
odd 1.60

20.08.2010. u 14:05 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

srijeda, 24.03.2010.

24.3. Wednesday

Portsmouth - Chelsea
pick:2
odd:1.30
20-45h

Manchester City - Everton
pick:1
odd:1.80
20-45h

Valencia - Malaga
pick:1
odd:1.45
22-00h

24.03.2010. u 12:26 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

subota, 13.03.2010.

13.3. Saturday

Lyon - St Etienne
pick:1
odd:1.40
21-00h

AEK - Kavala
pick:1
odd:1.50
18-00h

Hajduk Split - Rijeka
pickj:1
odd:1.35
20-15h

Bayern - Freiburg
pick:1
odd:1.25
18-30h


13.03.2010. u 01:06 • 1 KomentaraPrint#

nedjelja, 07.03.2010.

7.3. Sunday

Olimpik Sarajevo - Velez Mostar
pick:X2
odd:1.75
15-00h

Everton - Hull
pick:1
odd:1.40
17-00h

Inter - Genoa
pick:1
odd:1.45
20-45h

Sparta - Ajax
pick:2
odd:1.40
12-30h

07.03.2010. u 01:06 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

nedjelja, 28.02.2010.

28.2. Sunday

Liverpool - Blackburn
pick:1
odd:1.40
16-00h

Panionios - Panathinaikos
pick:2
odd:1.50
18-00h

Hajduk Split - S. Belupo
pick:1
odd:1.30
16-00h

Juventus - Palermo
pick:1
odd:1.70
20-45h

Ajax - Utrecht
pick:1
odd:1.35
12-30h


preporucujemo najbolji sajtovi u vezi kladjenja:

28.02.2010. u 01:47 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

subota, 27.02.2010.

27.2. Saturday

Leverkusen - Köln
pick:1
odd:1.40
18-30h

Sloboda - Sarajevo
pick:1
odd:1.60
14-30h

Lyon - Nice
pick:1
odd:1.35
19-00h

Tenerife - Real Madrid
pick:2
odd:1.30
20-00h


preporucujemo najbolji sajtovi u vezi kladjenja:

27.02.2010. u 00:37 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

četvrtak, 25.02.2010.

25.2. Thursday

Juventus - Ajax
pick:1
odd:1.70
21-05h

Unirea U. - Liverpool
pick:2
odd:1.70
19-00h

Marseille - FC Kopenhagen
pick:1
odd:1.50
19-00h


preporucujemo najbolji sajtovi u vezi kladjenja:

25.02.2010. u 02:17 • 0 KomentaraPrint#

petak, 04.09.2009.

CORRECT SCORE BETTING

This bet is generally considered a "mugs game" by serious punters.

There are so many options available that there are always tasty looking prices - the lowest price is usually at 6.00 or 6.50 - but because of the "look good" the bookie actually takes a bigger profit margin (or "juice") on these bets.

A TEST - The prices look good - but they are not. Here is an example.

Let's say that you think a game will be a tight, low scoring game. It will have three goals or less in it - without looking at the answer below - how many different scoring combinations do you think there are for a game with 3 or less goals?

The answer is 10 results. Do you still think that a price of 6.00 looks good?

0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0


Possible Exceptions
Modern football, however, consistantly throws up one option. If you can find a team that is rock-solid at the back and does just enough to win (Chelsea, Juventus, AC Milan come to mind) then the 1-0 option does offer some value if the price is right.

e.g Betting on Chelsea to win at home at prices of 1.25 - 1.30 in 2004-05 would have lost you money returning around Ł182 from Ł190 staked for 19 X Ł10 bets.

But betting on a 1-0 result would have paid off. Chelsea won 6 games 1-0 at Stamford Bridge last season - so 19 x Ł10 bets would have returned around Ł360 for your Ł190 investment.

Similarly - Juventus won 5 of 6 of their group games in the Champions League by a 1-0 scoreline - the other was draw 1-1 when Juventus conceded a penalty.

Of course it's easy to be wise after the event - and these examples are statistical freaks - but if you look closely - then you may find a hole in the odds - until the bookie start losing money.


ANYTIME SCORER

I do, however, sometimes like the SCORE ANYTIME punt when the circumstances are right.

Sure the odds are a little less - but the "value" can be there if you do your homework - and as long as he stays on the pitch then your target player can earn you a winning bet for the full 90 minutes - even if his side is a couple of goals down. That has some appeal.

Usually top ranked strikers for big clubs are not worth taking, but there are sometimes a few holes in the prices. You should look for :
· Players who take set pieces, especially penalties
· Players from smaller clubs, especially at home
· Games where goal scoring is likely to be higher

A prime example was Crystal Palace's Andy Johnson with 21 goals last season, including 11 from the spot. Portsmouth's Ayegbeni was another with 13 goals (4 pens) and nearly all of them at home.


HALF TIME / FULL TIME

I've saved this for last because the HT-FT bet can be very lucrative - but only if you know what you are looking for.

The HT-FT bet is simply a play on a combination of the result at Halftime and then the RESULT at Fulltime. As there are nine possible combinations it pays out much higher than a standard result bet.

And I believe that certain plays can be value as most of the bookmakers HT-FT odds are generated according to a table based on their odds for the main match.

And in certain cases this is incorrect - as some teams have very different styles which does make a certain result more likely.

EXAMPLES
Chelsea are a boring side to watch in the first half of their games. That's not a criticism, but a statement of fact. If you watch Chelsea then there are not many goals early in the match - and a 0-0 scoreline at halftime is very common.

They play defensively early in - and start dominating after half-time - tiring out a side and then scoring the winning goal(s). In the 2004-05 Premiership season they had 6 home games, and 7 away games where they were drawing at Halftime and went on to win.

The median price was about 4.75 (it moves between 4.50 at home to 5.00 away) for the X/1 and X/2 results. If you'd played all 38 games to an Ł10 stake then you would have staked Ł380 to return Ł617 (and 50p).

Arsenal are an exciting side, especially at Highbury (alright you can tell I'm a Gooner right? I'll tone it down - read on).

Anyway - from January onwards - watching Arsenal at home usually meant seeing goals. They won 7/9 at home ... but significantly in all seven games that they won - they were ahead by halftime!!

If you'd bet on standard results you would have collected a small gain of around 12% during that run - as Arsenal winning at home is not a surprising result.

But if you'd punted on the HT-FT bet of 1/1 then you'd have got a median price of around 2.10 and your gain during that run would have been 63% of total stakes!!

As you can see the HT-FT bet is worth considering - if you can find a situation that is unusual - and one that the bookmakers standard systems might not have covered.


OVER / UNDER

A more common punt is the OVER/UNDER bet where you punt on whether there will be 0-2 goals or 3+ goals on a match (usually).

This betting option has some appeal to the statistical punter, because we all get a "gut feel" for whether a game is likely to have a lot of goals or not.

However, this punt should be treated with caution, and if you do decide to play it, it should always be played to "level stakes" as it is notoriously difficult to accurately predict the chances.

I have a spreadsheet system for this - last season it predicted 19 high confidence UNDER games in the English PRemier League - and 15 did finish in less than 3 goals for an overall profit margin of 47% over stakes.

But, maddingly, of the four bets that lost, three of them were the HIGHEST possible confidence bets and were blown away when an early goal was scored - completely changing the expected pattern of the match
>

04.09.2009. u 01:21 • 2 KomentaraPrint#

utorak, 28.07.2009.

interesting

Even if you consider yourself a member of the first two categories (what those in the industry refer to as "squares"), you can learn how to change your ways and transform yourself into a "sharp" or savvy bettor. If you are interested in making money betting sports, the first thing you should do is take a couple hours to check out Insider Sports Report's Sports Betting 101 page Here. Insider Sports Report has compiled many articles aimed at average bettors who are looking for help in beating the house. Our writers regularly interview top brass from sports betting industry in Las Vegas and overseas. These sports book operators are willing to give sports betting tips in order to increase interest in the industry in general. Unfortunately, most bettors do not heed the advice that is available to them. This is why the sports books are in business. For every sharp bettor there are a handful of bettors who lose on a regular basis. Here are some basic rules that can help you increase your winning percentage. Some of these sports betting tips are set in stone while others should be used as more of a guideline.

-Sports Betting Tip #1 - Money Management-This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting sports and possibly the most neglected. The first key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If you are going to bet on sports, it is important to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and to stick with that bankroll, win or lose. Winning money on sports is not a sprint. If you bet your whole bankroll on one game and lose, you will be more likely to try and chase your losses. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework. Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses? Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak.

-Sports Betting Tip #2 - Shopping for Numbers
The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss.

-Sports Betting Tip #3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence
There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window.

-Sports Betting Tip #4 - Do your Homework
As a bettor, you have the advantage of streamlining your research, which is something the sports books are not at liberty to do. They must keep on top of EVERY sport and EVERY game. The best way to win money betting sports is to develop a niche and follow it closely. If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.

-Sports Betting Tip #5 - Check the Odds
Some sports books have better odds on parlays and teasers. When you are betting big bucks the difference in odds translate into a huge difference in your payout. All it takes is a little research of the sports books you usually bet at. Most books have their payout odds listed in way that is easy for the bettor to find them. It should be noted that we advise against playing parlays and teasers for the most part. (Especially anything over a 2-teamer)

-Sports Betting Tip #6 - Play Home Dogs
There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home. Teams play inspired ball at home. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.

There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.

As with any industry there are the good and the bad. We must confess that our industry has gotten somewhat of a black eye. The handicapping business has been flooded with 1-900-rip-offs, "boiler room" sales offices and those recorded free pick phones that get your phone number so that one of their high pressure salesman can call back and hound you on a daily basis. These services are often skilled in marketing but know little when in comes to handicapping. This is not in your best interest.

Be careful of services offering different levels of picks. (Diamond, Gold, Silver) based on the idea the more you pay, the better the picks will be. The question will always remain. Why wouldn't you give everyone your best picks? Why give out the lower level of picks at all? At Insider Sports Report, we have only one set of picks for one fair price, no matter what size of player you are.

It's very important that whether you use our service, another service, or handicap on your own that you do your homework and always remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint. The same principles that apply to any business, also applies to sports betting and in our 20+ years of experience we can only guarantee the following four statements: There are no 'Locks,' there are no 'get-rich-quick' schemes, any game can lose in almost unimaginable ways, and unfortunately you will have your losing days.

The bottom line is to win more that you lose, and that's what has kept us in business for more than 20 years. Be sure to check out entire website. We have many free tools available to you like our Matchups, Trends, Stats, etc. Sign up for our free picks newsletter below, or check out our member Football Picks, Basketball Picks and Baseball Picks which are all available for a reasonable cost. We hope these sports betting tips will help out but most importantly be patient, have some fun and enjoy the experience. Best of Luck - Insider Sports

28.07.2009. u 12:39 • 2 KomentaraPrint#

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