Both teams have been strong at closing time
UpdatedOct 3, 2011 6:25 PM ET If you think protecting a ninthinning lead in an important
baseball game is no problem, you might want to check in with
Boston's Jonathan Papelbon or Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel.
You can find them at home. It's no sure thing when you're asked
to record the final outs of a tense game, but don't tell that to
the
Milwaukee
Brewers or Arizona Diamondbacks, who
will square off in Game 1 of the National League Division Series at
Miller Park on Saturday afternoon.
Simply put, these teams don't blow leads. Arizona has not blown
a lead after eight innings all season. The
Brewers frittered away just one lead
after eight, and that came on opening day in Cincinnati when the
Reds scored four runs off closer John Axford.
In fact, the
Brewers haven't blown a lead after
seven innings since July 4 at home when the D'backs scored once in
the eighth (off Kameron Loe) and twice in the ninth (off Axford) to
win, 8-6. So, here's some advice to the respective offenses in this
series: Score early and often if you want to win.
"Our bullpen has been huge for us; it's a great bullpen," said
Brewers manager Ron Roenicke. "When
we go to our bullpen, I don't expect a run to be given up. It's not
fair, but I've seen it so long, that's what I expect.
"I know things are going to change sometimes, but they've been
great." So, here's where the irresistible force vs. the immovable
object scenario comes into play. The D'backs have come from behind
to win games 48 times, the most in the majors.
How do you come back against a bullpen that doesn't blow leads?
"Something's going to have to go," said Arizona manager Kirk Gibson
with a smile.
"I know they've come back lately," Roenicke said of the D'backs.
"Arizona's a very good team. That's why they are where they are.
They're playing outstanding right now. We need to be able to stop
them because a lot of times that feeling that they have that they
can't be beat, that carries you a long ways." Arizona's bullpen,
rebuilt over the off-season as the primary focus of general manager
Kevin Towers, features closer J.J. Putz (45 saves, 2.17 ERA) and
setup man David Hernandez (3.38 ERA, 11 saves, 74 appearances) as
the 1-2 punch at the end of games.
In Axford, the
Brewers have the hottest closer in
the NL. He converted his final 43 chances without failure to finish
with 46, tying Atlanta's Kimbrel for the league lead. Axford posted
a 1.95 ERA and struck out 86 hitters in 732/3 innings.
Things can change in the whitehot glare of postseason play but
if the regular season meant anything, ninth-inning rallies will be
as rare as sushi in this series.
"Their bullpen has been great; our bullpen has been great," said
Gibson. "We're very similar in that. That's kind of the magic of
the series.
You can't script it.
"We had the Navy Seals come in during spring training. They gave
us a presentation and we saw a lot of things that they do. It was
like, 'Wow. How do you deal with it?' They said, 'We just deal with
it.' 'DWI.' "So, whatever comes your way, you have to deal with it.
The situation may change. We may get up by three. We deal with that
situation. If we're down by three, we deal with it. If it's a tie
game and the 11th inning, there's all kinds of situations." The
Brewers' late-inning dynamic changed
completely at the allstar break when general manager Doug Melvin
acquired New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. "K-Rod" was
installed as the eighth-inning setup man for Axford, allowing the
Brewers to lock down the final two
frames and pushing other dependable relievers such as Takashi Saito
and LaTroy Hawkins into earlier roles.
When you know the other team seldom if ever allows leads to get
away, Roenicke said it changes the way you run a game.
"There's a lot of times you manage to what the opposing bullpen
is," said Roenicke. "If they're lights-out in the eighth and ninth,
then you need to go for it in the seventh.
"With our bullpen, I think we're lights-out really six, seven,
eight, nine; definitely eight and nine. So, you manage different.
You may sacrifice bunt in the fifth inning.You may use all of your
best pinch-hitters in the eighth." Not that it's going to be easy
to push across runs against the starting pitchers,
Brewers right-hander Yovani
Gallardo and Arizona ace Ian Kennedy. Gallardo has been sensational
against the D'backs over his career, going 5-0 with a 1.20 earned
run average in five starts.
Kennedy broke through this year with a Cy Young caliber season,
going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 33 starts. On July 21 in Phoenix, he
blanked the
Brewers on four hits over seven
innings in a 4-0 triumph.
Because Kennedy is by far Arizona's best starting pitcher, and
because home-field advantage has meant so much to the
Brewers (major-league best 57-24
record), Game 1 of this series could be more important than usual
in a best-of-five format.
Beating Kennedy would be huge for the
Brewers, as would stealing away the
home field for the D'backs.
"Game 1 is important," said Roenicke. "That's why we fought so
hard to get that home-field advantage.
I think it's very important. Is it a must (win)? No, but it's
very important.
"It's always important to beat their best guy. If you beat their
best guy, you're looking really good in the series, especially
these short series.
I know Kennedy is their main guy, but they've got some other
starters who have given us trouble, as well as the league.
"So we're not going in there figuring we're going to bash the
ball. We're going to try to grind it out.".
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