Osnova zadnjih poteza USA/EU u iranskoj situaciji je (ipak) neocekivani izbor Ahmedinejada za predsjednika Irana te nelagodnost koju 'zapadnjaci' osjecaju tim povodom. Ukoliko se 'nuklearno pitanje' ne rijesi skoro, ta nelagoda ce samo rasti, a samim tim i ulozi u pokerskoj igri koju su US zaigrali, koristeci EU-3 (GB, FR, D) u pokusaju prebacivanja problema na UN Security Council (navodno ocekujuci sankcije protiv Irana zbog nuklearnog programa).
Tako su npr. EU-3 trazili produzetak roka suspenzije nuklearnog programa (Paris Agreement-dogovoren lani u studenom do kraja srpnja o.g.) za nekoliko dana (!?)...Rok od nekoliko dana je vjerovatno trazen kako bi se cekalo obracanje novog predsjednika (nastupio na duznost jucer!) i njegovo misljenje o nuklearnom programu. S druge strane, lako je moguce da su prijedlozi EU-3 bili bazirani na pretpostavci da ce Rafsanjani (kao umjereniji kandidat!?) dobiti izbore pa su sad bili u situaciji da mijenjaju vec slozene prijedloge (da ih ne bi Iran mozda i prihvatio)...
Iran has made a clean, physical separation between two components of its 18-year-old nuclear enrichment program, which it had kept secret. Its enrichment plant is located at Natanz. But the factory that is supposed to feed it is located in Isfahan and is designed to convert solid uranium oxides into hexafluoride gas. At the moment, Iran is only threatening to begin operating the Isfahan factory –one clean step away from enrichment itself. In any case, Iran says it wants to enrich uranium to a low level for use in nuclear power reactors. Normally, power reactors burn 2 to 4 percent enriched uranium, in which the proportion of its fissile isotope U-235 has been raised to that percentage up from the naturally occurring 0.7 percent. Iran has consistently affirmed that it has a right to acquire and develop nuclear technology for peaceful uses and that it will never pursue weapons of mass destruction.
However, the US suspects that Iran, with huge oil and petroleum reserves, wants to enrich uranium only to make nuclear weapons. It is another matter that the US is not a state with merely suspected nuclear activity and a weapons program, but a declared nuclear weapons state, and that it developed nuclear power despite its petroleum reserves. The EU-3 have been trying to mediate between the U.S. and Iran, but their efforts could fail if the US takes a tough, unhelpful stand to isolate Iran, driving it to harden its own posture. That could bring two years of difficult EU-Iran negotiations to a sorry end.
Iran's case has been further burdened by the agreement the US signed with India just two weeks ago. Under it, Washington has recognized India as a "responsible state with advance nuclear technology," agreed to resume civilian nuclear trade with it, and also to help "adjust" the international nuclear control regime to enable wide-ranging civilian transactions with India.
Iran responded to this deal by accusing the Bush administration of double standards and undermining the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ). Iran says "the U.S. signed this agreement despite the fact that India, unlike Iran, has not signed the NPT." Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) permits the pursuit of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes like generating power, under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision.
Kao i obicno, US se ponasa kao 'slon u staklarni' podrzavajuci EU-3 pregovore i inzistirajuci s druge strane na potpunom i kompletnom prestanku obogacivanja urana pa je tako prostor za kompromis prilicno skucen. Dodatno se s trece strane dogovara nuklearna kooperacija s Indijom.
Dakle, Indija (koja nije potpisnik NPT) ima pravo brinuti o svom nacionalnom interesu, i nitko ih ne osudjuje zbog toga (cak je i US podupire), ali Iran koji je potpisnik NPT nema pravo na tako nesto, prema tumacenju Bush administracije.
Tesko je vjerovati da ce ovakvi dvostruki standardi postici 'zeljeni' (proklamirani) ucinak tj. odvratiti Iran od procesa obogacivanja urana...
Naprotiv, tesko da ce US/EU-3 moci dobiti ovu partiju Nuke Pokera posebno kad se ukljuce i druga dva igraca u Vijecu Sigurnosti-Rusija i Kina...Naime, prema 'preporuci' US, EU-3 je ranije ove godine zaprijetio prijaviti Iran Vijecu Sigurnosti ako nastavi 'uranium enrichment activities'.
Hm, sto ne valja u toj slici?
Pa, jedini koji moze prijaviti Iran je IAEA, a bez definitivnog dokaza o WMD u Iranu tesko ce to biti progurati kroz IAEA (pogotovo nakon irackih "dokaza"). Tvrdnje Bush administracije da "enrichment activities are "forbidden" kao i tvrdnje Tony Blaira da ce Iran prekrsiti "obligations and undertakings" ako prekine voluntary suspension su naravno pravne besmislice.
Ali, puno bitnije od svega toga (jer sve je to ipak provedivo kroz sustav, kao sto smo vidjeli iz irackog slucaja), tesko ce biti nagovoriti Rusiju i Kinu na odluku o sankcijama iz jednostavnog razloga investicija koje su imale i imaju u Iranu. Npr. Rusija trenutno gradi Bushehr light-water nuclear power plant, a Kina je, uvijek gladna energije prosle godine sklopila $70 billion oil&gas deal s Teheranom.
Sad kljucno pitanje da li bas US gubi u tom pokeru? I kamo nas to vodi?
Vjerovatno u pat poziciju koja ce biti idealna za US da dobije background za hitni napad na nuklearna postrojenja u Iranu (zasto hitni?...nekidan procijenise da Iran ne moze napravit bombu u slijedecih 10 godina, sve i da hoce, gdje je zurba? PetroEuro od slijedece godine? Probably...)
A 'motiv' ili 'konkretni razlog' cemo tek vidjeti gdje ce 'pronaci' i s kolikim brojem zrtava...ukoliko jos uvijek i to trebaju...Uh, zvucim zlokobno sam sebi...
p.s. namjerno u ovom kontekstu ne spominjem Izrael i njihovu A-production jer mislim da je rijec o sasvim razlicitoj ligi